Monday – 68/90 – Partly Sunny – Maybe An Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorm
Tuesday – 69/88 – Chance of Rain/Scattered Thunderstorms
A cold front will be approaching. The chance of rain will increase as we go through the day.
This Week: Tue-Wed Rain/Storms, then Cooler Temps
Concern About Afternoon Lightning, Strong Thunderstorms
It’s much more humid at 9 am this morning (dew point 70) than it was at any time yesterday.
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This morning’s weather balloon showed 2,843 j/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE. Think of CAPE as the building blocks which make storms. You usually only need 1,000 – 1,500 j/kg for strong storms to happen. Models predict we will have 3,500 j/kg soon, and up to 5,000 to 5,500 j/kg this afternoon. 3,500 is PLENTY of building blocks to make a strong to severe thunderstorm.
It’s Been Nice, But It Still Might Rain/Storm Tonight & Tomorrow
Today
The high humidity we had this morning (dew points in the mid-upper 60s) usually sets off afternoon thunderstorms. That has not happened today. We’ve dodged the rain. So far.
The water vapor image tells the story:
A Few Whack-a-Mole Rain/Storms Today May Miss Us
I’m feeling good about your soccer game, 10 year anniversary party, and late afternoon motorcycle ride into town, but you should not ignore the weather today.
Saturday Morning – 75 at 10am
Water vapor imagery displays the amount of moisture in various levels of the atmosphere. The more you get, the better your rain chances.
Wet Morning, Uncertain Rest of the Weekend
It’s been another wet start to the weekend. Seems like “weekend” and “rain” mean the same thing.
Tonight
Most of the showers and thunderstorms are going to stay to our south tonight, but you’ll still need a rain jacket or umbrella if heading out. At least it’ill be warm, with 70 degrees forecast at 10 PM.
The Weekend: Wet, But Not Ruined
The models keep things pretty quiet today through tomorrow morning. Here is the RAP model from Thursday night through Friday morning at 10am:
Friday – 63/78
The weather models (Euro, GFS, NAM and WRF) deliver scattered rain showers in and around us most of the day Friday and into Saturday morning, all thanks to a “shortwave trough” (low pressure) that’ll truck on through.
Rain Chances Return + (uh-oh) Another Wet Saturday?
Thursday – 62/82
All four weather models (GFS, NAM, Euro, WRF) scatter light rain through middle TN during the afternoon and evening hours. These will be hit/miss showers – meaning we may or may not get wet. The odds of us getting wet are around 1 in 3. There may also be a few thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected.
It’s a Dry Heat; Rain Chances Thursday-Friday
Today we’ll top out around 84°, rain free, with very little humidity. Be careful, though, the sun can still burn you. The winds are picking up, but are comfortably under advisory criteria.
Wednesday – 59/87
Next Few Days: Dry & Warming Up. Chance of Rain Thursday.
Our NWS is so confident we won’t see rain through Wednesday that they’ve taken down the radar for maintenance.
Tuesday 49/83 & Wednesday 59/86
Heat will start to build, but the humidity won’t be that bad.
Awesome Weather Ahead, Especially If You Like Frosty Monday Mornings
Mother’s Day – High of 65
A gorgeous day!
Monday – 38/70
NWS has issue a extremely-rare-for-May Frost Advisory for overnight (early Monday morning):
...FROST AND RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT... .AN UNUSUALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE MID STATE. SOME PARTS OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION COULD BRIEFLY DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP VERY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING THANKS TO STRONG MID MAY SUNSHINE.
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