The high humidity we had this morning (dew points in the mid-upper 60s) usually sets off afternoon thunderstorms. That has not happened today. We’ve dodged the rain. So far.
The water vapor image tells the story:
Bright and colored areas indicate high moisture. Dark areas indicate low moisture. Our air is “wet” at the surface, but dry above us. Add to that some sinking air way the heck up in the sky, and we got a dry morning and afternoon.
Let’s go back to the water vapor image. Behold the orange arrows, moisture approacheth from the west:
The RAP and HRRR are picking up on the coming moisture and predicting rain tonight. This image is looping from this afternoon through 10am Sunday:
The HRRR wants to start the rain as early as 5pm (below), then scatter showers into both Davidson & Williamson Counties tonight and into the early morning hours Sunday:
The HRRR is, in my opinion, setting off the rain too early. That model is having a bad day.
Bottom Line: have a rain plan for your 10 year anniversary party, bring a jacket or umbrella with you to the ball game, and otherwise stay on top of the weather. We probably will not see any rain tonight (in fact, we’ll probably be OK), but you should be prepared anyway. Any developing rainmaker can fire off lightning.
We’ll be on Twitter (@NashSevereWx) with updated information throughout the night.
Sunday – 67/86
For the first time in a long time, we’re going to reach a heat index worth mentioning: 90, around 4 pm tomorrow. Rain and thunderstorms will remain possible Sunday morning and through the afternoon as this wave of moisture works its way through.
Our NWS expects us to dry out Sunday night.
Rain chances will return mid-week as a cold front approaches.