Wet Morning, Uncertain Rest of the Weekend

It’s been another wet start to the weekend. Seems like “weekend” and “rain” mean the same thing.


Most of the showers and thunderstorms are going to stay to our south tonight, but you’ll still need a rain jacket or umbrella if heading out. At least it’ill be warm, with 70 degrees forecast at 10 PM.

Saturday Morning

Rain is expected to last into Saturday morning. Here is the Hi-Res NAM Friday 4 PM – Saturday 7 AM:

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Saturday Afternoon – High 82

Someone in Middle TN is going to get some rain and a decent thunderstorm or two, but the question is: Who? Right now it looks like the most rain and storm activity tomorrow afternoon will be south of I-40. Hopefully, the rain will clear around noon, and make way for a gorgeous sunny day, but the models aren’t in total agreement on that.

Hi-Res NAM Saturday 7 AM – Sunday 1 AM:

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The NWS thinks rain is “likely” until 4pm Saturday, after which time our rain chances decrease.

We simply can’t rule out rain at any time late Saturday afternoon or night, but for now the best bet is that the rain will begin to wind down as we approach the evening hours.

Riding your motorcycle into town tomorrow night? Got an anniversary party planned? I think we may be OK, but we don’t really know. The only thing we’re certain about is uncertainty.

Sunday – High of 86

Rain chances decrease. We may see a few thunderstorms along and south of I-40, but – again – we don’t really know where or when. The models aren’t much help, either. Check out the NAM and GFS, below:

Hi-Res NAM Sunday 7 AM – Monday 1 PM keeps us mostly dry:

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GFS Sunday 7 AM – Monday 10 AM predicts more rain:

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We’ll be up early tomorrow with another post. By then, the better-performing short range models will be available and will hopefully give us a better idea what to expect.