Tornadoes with debris signatures on radar are cutting through Illinois right now (11:30 a.m.). The risk in Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, northern Kentucky, and Ohio is much greater than ours, but you need to pay attention to our weather this afternoon and tonight.
Noon Update: On the South Edge of a Severe Weather Outbreak
On the Edge of a “Major Severe Weather Outbreak”
This morning’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) headline reads “A Major Severe Weather Outbreak is Forecast Today and/or Tonight.”
SPC”s “High Risk” category of severe weather category is rarely used. It’s in effect over Eastern Illinois, all of Indiana, southwest Michigan, and western Ohio. Chicago, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati are a few of the major cities included. If you have friends and family in the “High Risk” area, urge them to monitor the weather. This is not an “ordinary severe weather day” for them. It does not get worse than a “High Risk.”
Afternoon Update: Two Rounds of Strong/Severe Storms Possible Sunday
Two rounds of potentially severe weather will take a swing at us tomorrow.
Round 1: The Morning
There was debate this morning as to whether we’d see rain/storms tomorrow morning or afternoon.
Right now, we think there will be morning storms.
Sunday’s Severe Weather (Tornado/Damaging Winds) Potential
Today – Humid (“Almost Muggy”), Windy, Stray Drizzler – Mid 60s
A south wind (13 mph by this afternoon) is pumping in the humidity. It’s so humid that a stray light drizzler may drift by, but no measurable rain is expected.
Warm & Stormy Weekend
Tonight – Drying Out – Low 50s/Upper 40s
Water vapor imagery shows dry air spilling back into middle Tennessee. Looks dry tonight for all you JT and H.S. Football fans.
Friday night’s temperatures will be the coolest we get all weekend.
Update on Sunday’s Severe Weather Potential
This morning, the Storm Prediction Center issued its Day 3 Convective Outlook.
In increasing levels of threat, here are the five categories in a SPC Outlook (Parenthetical explanations are mine; certainly not official!):
Warming Up; Strong/Severe Storms Possible Sunday
First, terrible news. We were temporarily relocated this morning:
No word on where Memphis went. (This was later fixed. We all make mistakes. Let’s give The Weather Channel a break).
Tonight – 43 by 9 pm
Fire & Titans Weather, Warm Up, Sunday Storms?, Arctic Air!
Clear & Cold Tonight & Tomorrow Morning
It’ll be 32 at 9 p.m., diving into the upper 20s during the wee hours of Thursday morning.
Thursday – Fire Weather Watch – Morning Low 27, Afternoon High 55
Coldest Air Of The Season & A Peek At The Weekend
Tonight – Cold! – High 56
We saw winds this afternoon around 20 mph (sustained), gusting to 30 mph. Wind chills were stuck in the 20s most of the day.
Winds are dying down. The Wind Advisory will expire for all of Middle Tennessee at 6 pm.
Winter Arrives Tomorrow (No Accumulating Snow)
Veterans Day – Few Clouds – High 68
It has been a beautiful day to honor the women and men who have served our country.
Winds will increase tonight ahead of an unwelcome cold front, which will arrive while we sleep.
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