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Less Snow, but Historically & Dangerously Cold Monday

Current Official Hourly Observation:

9:38 PM NWS Forecast Discussion

Read full text here.

9:30 PM Update

The models continue to do some

GFS only gives us a dusting through Monday at 6 AM:

Hi-Res NAM model has meager snow totals:

The Short Range Ensemble Forecast (the “SREF,” it’s a model) thinks the most we’ll get is 2″ to 3″:

However, this is unlikely. Current trends indicate the rain will hurriedly exit Middle TN before the freezing temps arrive in time to change it to snow. That’s what our NWS Is referring to here:

The SREF minimum snowfall totals go from a dusting to nothing:

Any precip on the ground from Sunday’s rain/snow will freeze and make travel hazardous.

It appears the legacy of this storm system will be the brutally cold temperatures behind the front, arriving late Sunday night through Tuesday. The forecast temps in the 6:30 PM update below remain current.

6:30 PM Update

Tonight  – Cool & Clouds Building In  Midnight temp 38

Not very much going on ahead of tomorrow’s massive cold front. Winds are out of the south at 5 mph.

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Consider tonight your last chance to prep:

Prep checklist:

  • Plan not to drive! 70% of deaths during a snow/ice events occur in automobiles.
  • Full tank of gas in the car. May seem counter intuitive since I’m telling you not to drive, but let’s be prepared.
  • Check your car battery or get it replaced, severe cold kills it. (I’m in Canada at the moment. First below zero day and our car battery died. Got it replaced and the guy told us they have changed over 400 car batteries because of this severe cold in just 1 day.)
  • Enough food through at least Wednesday, when temps will finally get above freezing. (Editor’s Note: @PanicCatfish may have already bought it all).
  • Extra water in case you have a busted pipe and loose water. (We use to clean the bathtub, close and duck tape the drain and fill it with water.
  • Disconnect your garden hoses. This helps prevent pipes from freezing.
  • Wrap any exposed outdoor pipes.
  • Plan to being the pets indoors for the next few days.
  • Keep extra medication around.
  • Check your fireplace and all heating equipment.

Sunday – *Winter Weather Advisory* – Rain Changing to Snow, Then Historically & Dangerously Cold  Morning Low 35 / Afternoon High 51

6a 36 . 9a 40 . 12p 47 . 3p 45 . 6p 34 . 9p 24

The snowmaking weather system is moving a little bit slower than we thought it would this morning. The delay means less snow, arriving later in the day Sunday.

Rain should begin off and on in the morning, probably by mid-morning, but the bulk of the rain activity will begin after noon.

As for temperatures, Sunday will begin above freezing. Our high temp will happen sometime after 1 PM, when we’ll make it somewhere around 50. Late Sunday afternoon/early evening, the bottom will fall out. We’ll hit 35 by 6 PM, 24 by 9 PM, and 19 at midnight.

This is called a FLASH FREEZE! Roads, puddles, and anything wet will quickly freeze, within a couple hours of the cold front passing.

When winds shift from out of the south to out of the northwest, you’ll know the cold front is arriving. Winds will be 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. This is expected to happen while the precip is still working its way through middle TN, changing the rain from sleet to snow.

We don’t recommend travel after 3 PM. Don’t get caught in the storm.

*Winter Weather Advisory*

Our NWS is expecting snow to arrive anywhere from 3 pm to 6 pm:

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It will not take long for road conditions to rapidly deteriorate.

If you absolutely don’t have a choice and you need to venture out:

  • Remove any snow or ice off the vehicle, even the top of your car. This will make you more visible to other drivers.
  • Let someone know when you leave, where you are going, the route you plan taking, and when you arrive.
  • Drive slow and use caution. You may be the best driver in the world, but everyone else may be terrible drivers.
  • When breaking on snow or ice, don’t just hit the breaks or you will slide. Pump the breaks repeatedly to come to a safe, controlled stop.
  • Keep blankets in your car.
  • Have food and water with you.
  • Have a fully charged cell phone.
  • And just don’t drive if there is no need to. #SafetyFirst

We still think this will be a dry powder snow skiers love, but snowmen-builders hate. This type of snow can really get whipped around by the winds. Visibilities will be very low at times, made worse by the loss of daylight.

GFS Sunday 12 pm – Monday 6 am:

Hi-Res NAM model Sunday 12 pm – Sunday 9 pm:

How much snow are we expecting?

As of this afternoon, our NWS forecasted 1″ to 2″ inches of snow, with some possibly seeing 3 inches:

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Accumulations are trending downward. Don’t expect much snow.

Planning to sled? Don’t. It’ll be dark before all the snow has fallen, there won’t be much of it, and temps will drop dramatically. It won’t be any fun.

Cold temps are the real concern.

Monday – Flurries, Wind Bitter Cold  Morning Low 3 / Afternoon High 7

6a 6 . 9a 4 . 12p 6 . 3p 6 . 6p 5 . 9p 3

*Wind Chill Advisory* – Monday 12 am – Tuesday 8 am.

Wind Chills: 6a -13 . 9a 13 . 12p -13 . 3p -12 . 6p -12 . 9p -12 . 12a -10

Those are all minus signs.

The winds will cut you in half. 15 mph sustained with gusts of 25 mph! Do not be outside.

Don’t let the kids play in the snow — it will be too cold!!!!!!!! Can’t stress this enough!

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There could be a few flurries in the morning. Blowing snow could be a problem. 

We are forecast to break the record minimum high of 10 degrees set back in 1884 for this day.

Extended Official NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-01-04 at 6.04.00 PM

From our NWS:

Yeah, more snow is possible late Wednesday/early Thursday. But, one thing at a time : )

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

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