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Rain-to-Snow Sunday; Severe Cold Monday & Tuesday

Current Official Hourly Observation:

Tonight  – Clear & Cold  Midnight Temp 23

Wind chills will drop into the teens tonight. Those will seem warm compared to what’s up ahead…

Saturday – Warmer, Mostly Clear, then Rain Late  Morning Low 18 / High 43

6a 20 . 9a 28 . 12p 39 . 3p 43 . 6p 41 . 9p 38

Wind chill of 11 at 6 AM! 

By noon, we will have warmed up nicely.

After that, winds between 5 and 15 mph will arrive, with gusts up to 25.

Light rain arrives after midnight. Although there’s an outside chance some wintry precipitation may mix in, it will be mostly rain through Sunday morning.

Sunday – Rain Changing to Snow  Morning Low 34 / Afternoon High 42

6a 37 . 9a 40 . 12p 42 . 3p 33 . 6p 23 . 9p 20

Winds will be strong: 10 to 20 mph sustained, with gusts up to 30 mph.

As mentioned above, we will start with all rain Sunday morning. Temps will again rise to around 40 at noon.

Sometime after noon, the arctic cold front will arrive. Notice the temp spreads above: 42 at noon, 33 at 3 PM.  Sometime during the afternoon, rain will change to sleet, then quickly switch to all snow. Snow may be heavy during this time. Accumulations vary depending on the weather model, with the GFS running between 2+”, and the Euro sticking to just 1″. (We ignored the NAM model for now, and the Canadian model isn’t quite in range)

Here’s the GFS model, which delivers snow in the afternoon (Sunday 12 am – Monday 12 am):

GFS model snow totals through Monday 6 am right around 2″:

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_12

The further north you are, the more snow you’ll see.

Official NWS forecast:

image5

With the variance in the models, these totals will be adjusted tomorrow and Sunday morning.

As soon as the changeover to snow happens, travel will quickly become hazardous. High winds will blow the snow around and limit visibility. I don’t recommend travel Sunday afternoon/evening.

This will be a powdery snow. It won’t pack well. Bad news for snowball/snowmen fans, but then again, I don’t think you should go outside Monday unless you have to.

Extended Official NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-01-03 at 9.08.11 PM

SEVERE COLD NEXT WEEK

These will be the coldest temps since 1994. This should not be taken lightly. Don’t go outside. Sometime tomorrow, protect faucets and disconnect garden hoses. Sunday, put your pets inside. For the record, I’m not letting my kids sled Monday. Temps will be dangerously cold, with wind chills ranging from 12 to -14. Monday, we’ll wake up to a wind chill at minus 11.

Questions? We’re on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

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