The forecast is below. But first, the editor intervened to look back at 2015:
There was almost no spring severe weather season, we had record/near-record warmth in November and December, but in 2015, only two events really come to mind.
Current Radar
New Year’s Eve (Thursday) – MUCH Cooler! Waking Up: 36° High: 47°
The cool air really settles into our area from the north on New Year’s Eve. We have those northerly winds that continue to draw in the cooler, drier air.
Current Radar
Happy Tuesday!
The large storm system that has harassed much of the country over the past few days is now well off to our northeast….
…but it has left quite a bit of cloud cover in its wake:
Current Radar
I hope you asked for gloves and a jacket this Christmas. We have a chilly week ahead!
The storms have passed and they continue to move east out of our area.
![Satellite image(s) [MGM, vis] 2015-12-28 14-44-02](http://nswx--legacy-backup.local/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Satellite-images-MGM-vis-2015-12-28-14-44-02.png)
We will be mostly cloudy Tuesday. It will be MUCH cooler on thanks to the cold front. We wanted Winter, and it’s here!
Current Radar
Expected here around/after lunch is this broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms. Map is from 7:38 AM:
Notice most of the severe weather is happening further south. That’s where the higher instability (CAPE) is found:
Current Radar
Today we broke the record high for December 27, 76°, laying down the 75° set in 1982.
Rain should begin sometime late tonight, last into the wee hours of the morning, and continue in full force into the afternoon. Note this is not expected to be a continuous rain, but we’ve seen so much these past several days, we can’t take much more and avoid a flooding event. (This is NOTHING like what we saw in May 2010).
Current Radar
Today’s question is “when the rain will arrive?”
The HRRR model thinks it’ll show up after dark:
If we freeze frame the HRRR model at 2 PM . . .
Current Radar
We set another record high temp today: 75°, breaking the record of 73° set in 1875.
We will remain unseasonably warm Sunday. NWS is forecasting another high of 75°. If that happens, it’ll set another daily record high.
Today: Drying out. High 75º
We should trend toward less rain today. However, it may not feel very dry, as humidity levels will remain high. Still no rain is better than lots of rain so we’ll take it.
Current Radar
For that reason, the Areal Flood Watch now in effect for Davidson and Williamson Counties will continue. Here’s the official text of the Watch:
As the front comes back north, we should see some rain, but model guidance hasn’t been much/any help to determine when or how much. Not looking for much more rain from this, but we certainly aren’t dry.
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