Expected here around/after lunch is this broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms. Map is from 7:38 AM:
Notice most of the severe weather is happening further south. That’s where the higher instability (CAPE) is found:
The Storm Prediction Center has only included us in its damaging wind (58+ MPH). We are currently excluded from its tornado and hail outlooks.
When our NWS released the weather balloon this morning, it reported zero CAPE/instability at the surface in Middle Tennesse. No CAPE means little/no chance of severe weather. That was no surprise.
Of course, as you know, weather always changes. So, will there be any CAPE/instability to feed these storms when they arrive at/after lunch?
The HRRR model thinks so. By noon, it has over 700 j/kg of surface CAPE, which, in our highly sheared environment, is plenty to create at least a low-end tornado threat.
We think the storms will intensify as they track east.
So, go about your day, don’t alter plans, but be sure to be alert for severe storm warnings.
We will live-tweet these storms as they approach and arrive on Twitter @NashSevereWx. No warnings will be posted to this website. Follow multiple reliable sources of severe weather information.
Flash Flood Watch
About another 1″ of rain is expected with this system. We can’t take much more without having flooding concerns.
This may assist Christmas decoration removal, but in high profile vehicles, be careful.
Meagan will come along later to update the rest of the week. Until then:
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs