Today’s question is “when the rain will arrive?”
The HRRR model thinks it’ll show up after dark:
If we freeze frame the HRRR model at 2 PM . . .
. . . you can see how close it is. It says the Titans game will be mostly dry. It’s a mistake to assume so. So, Titans fans, pack a poncho. The rain will be close enough.
We aren’t expecting severe weather today.
Temps remain miles above normal. The high of 73 with dew points in the low 60s is, well, just wrong for December. But here we are.
The low temp at Nashville has been 68° this morning. The low temp is 21° above the normal high temp and 38° above the normal low temp!
— NWS Nashville (@NWSNashville) December 27, 2015
Monday – Rain & Thunderstorms – Early 62, High 72
A lot more rain is on the way. We should see rain in the morning and afternoon:
Severe weather cannot be ruled out, but the better dynamics for severe weather are expected south of us. SPC probability for severe weather for us is 5%.
Rain and storms will take more of a north motion (as opposed to the NE motion from Wednesday).
The environment looks pretty “meh” for severe weather. The shear is substantial with this system, but the instability (CAPE) — while not zero — is pretty low. However, the upper low will take a negative tilt (indicating strength), and with the potential of upper level vorticity swinging through, severe potential should not and will not be ignored.
That rain/storm chance on Wednesday is trending down. Looks like most, if not all, of that system will pass south and east of us.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs