Merry Christmas Eve and an equally happy start to Hanukkah for all who celebrate. We won’t start out dry, unfortunately, as a super-soaking rainmaker is slowly traversing middle Tennessee today.
What to expect
A rain maker is already moving through the Missouri valley and will eventually reach us by early Saturday morning.
The HRRR model has a good handle on this through the evening:
Tree tops will glisten and children can still listen for sleigh bells in the rain. I’ll be dreaming of another white Christmas for next year.
We have great news today as a new drought index was released this morning.
We have been downgraded from a severe drought to a moderate drought. We still are not in the clear of our drought issues, but we are making slow steps in the right direction.
Well today officially marks the beginning of astronomical winter! Today will also be the shortest day of the year, as our days will begin to increase in duration through the summer solstice.
Other than that, the remainder of the week will remain fairly quiet.
Weather is an interesting phenomenon and interesting it was this morning. Just enough energy and available moisture have combined to produce a light dusting in middle Tennessee…all of this falling below the scope of radar where we would normally see it.
To start, you may need to bundle up as you head out the door tomorrow morning. High temps will finally be in the 40s, but temps will be in the teens and 20s until about 10 AM.
After our fairly active weather pattern we have seen over the past few weeks, this week appears to be mainly dry with temps generally just below average for the time of year.
When a massive cold front arrives, the cold air comes to the surface first (cold air sinks). It takes a while for the air aloft to cool. The result: it’s colder on the ground than it is overhead.
At 11 PM Saturday, the temp was 73°.
While you were sleeping — at least I hope you were sleeping — the temperature dropped to freezing. As I write this (at 4 AM) it is 32°.
Around 3 AM or so, a cold rain transitioned to freezing rain, and freezing rain transitioned to sleet. I hear the sound of the sleet right now.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwestern Alabama Southeastern Arkansas Northeastern Louisiana West-central through northern Mississippi Southwestern and middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 855 PM until 300 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of strong to locally severe storms near an intense cold front will move across the watch area through much of the overnight hours, offering a risk of sporadic damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes possible. Isolated severe storms still may form ahead of that band also. See SPC mesoscale discussions 1893-1894 for initial meteorological reasoning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Monroe LA to 15 miles east of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify along and ahead of a cold front moving across the watch area this afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 90 miles northeast of Bowling Green KY to 50 miles southeast of Little Rock AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
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