Rain has stayed clear of us so far today, but into tonight, we will begin to see those showers pushing into our area.
We could begin to see spotty showers by this afternoon, but we think the majority will hold off until the early evening hours.
HRRR model illustrates a little light rain it thinks will come in later tonight:
That’s not much. We agree.
Light winds and plenty of moisture will cause fog to form in spots, in all the usual places.
“Blerg” means it’s under 40° and raining, not snowing. This is not an official weather definition. We made it up.
Today is “almost” a blerg because the rain is mostly south and east of us, where it is expected to remain most of the day. Don’t be surprised if you get a shower/sprinkle or two, but don’t expect any real rain during the day.
A chilly rain, at that.
If you’re planning on a night out, a rain jacket, boots, and/or an umbrella would all be helpful.
How about four more days of it?
Sunday will start as a continuation of Saturday with showers encompassing most of the middle state.
High pressure remains well in control as we head into the evening hours tonight.
Through the night, expect for skies to begin to become cloudier. By tomorrow, skies will be mostly cloudy and once we reach tomorrow afternoon, we will become fair game for showers.
GFS 12z Run – Dry Conditions for next 36 hours
Through Saturday, high pressure will remain entrenched over the area, with westerly winds swinging around the north side of its center.
This brings us cooler and drier air to the two-county region through Friday. Then, changes start back up.
Waking up on Sunday morning, temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s accompanied by some showers. This will be a cold rain, and if you’re traveling towards the Cumberland area, don’t be surprised to see a few snowflakes on the northern side of the plateau in the morning.
GFS 12z Run – Rain Returning Early Sunday
Several pieces of energy (shortwaves) will work their way across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi valley from Sunday through mid-week. There will be breaks in the rain activity here and there, one of these times likely being Monday morning. However, expect off and on rain showers starting Sunday morning, rinsing and repeating through the work week.
Rain totals through Tuesday morning could range from 1-2″:
Wednesday PM-Thursday AM: we are watching for a strong cold front to make its way here. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely with this system as a robust low pressure system develops over the Rockies and travels through the midwest into the Great Lakes region.
NWS Nashville on mid-week storm:
Another strong Midwest trough will move in Thursday next week, and again models are in pretty good agreement on magnitude but slightly off on timing. Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning looks to be the consensus on timing, so have high chance pops in for that timeframe. The upper trough also brings a very strong cold front to the region, so if some precip lingers behind the front, flurries or light snow showers will be possible for the mid state Thursday morning into the early afternoon. With highs only in the low 40s Thursday, it looks like we will get a small taste of winter at the end of the forecast.
After what has been a very busy weather week thus far, we look to end the remainder of the work week with nothing but clear skies.
Showers and thunderstorms from last night continue to move off to the east. The cold front has passed through our area. Some scattered showers were trying to follow behind it earlier today, but those have since dwindled out. Partly cloudy skies through the remainder of our Wednesday. Behind this aforementioned cold front, we can expect to see cooler temperatures overnight and through the rest of the week.
What does this mean for us? Simply put, it is discussing the northern movement of a better severe weather environment. The closer that warm front gets to Davidson/Williamson counties, the more unstable our atmosphere could potentially become tonight. We still think the *best* ingredients for tornado development is ever-so-slightly to our south, but this does not mean we are free from seeing severe weather or possibly a tornado.
The Wind
Let’s talk first about the wind…and oh my the wind. We are currently under a wind advisory through midnight tonight.
Sustained winds to start the day will be around 15-20 mph. This will increase to about 20-25 mph by the afternoon. Now these are just sustained winds. We could potentially see wind gusts upwards of 40 mph through the day. This wind is expected long before any stormy weather (which would bring even faster wind speeds).
A Wind Advisory is in effect Monday from 9 AM to Midnight.
Wind speeds will increase Monday morning. By Monday late afternoon and evening, winds may gust between 40 and 50 MPH.
This will bring down tree limbs and blow around small objects, such as trash cans.
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