Timing of Severe Weather: 2 PM Through 10 PM
This ETA is broad/wide because of significant uncertainty. The models do not agree. Most, however, have 2 rounds of storms.
Round 1: Mid-to-late afternoon, as storms cluster and move into Middle TN from north MS. Do not look for a specific timing, like 3:30 PM vs 5:30 PM, because the risk of misleading you with a specific time is too high.
Our active Spring continues. Another storm system is on the way.
Rain is possible in the morning, as what’s left from the severe weather system in Oklahoma moves east. However, it looks more like those storms will impact west Tennessee and move into Kentucky. So says the HRRR model, below:
Most of the rain has gone east. The HRRR model, below, thinks a few new showers will develop and give us a chance of a passing shower or two today:
Here it is, zoomed in:
If you aren’t already rained out from rain yesterday and overnight, you should be good to go for outdoor stuff. The Nashville Chili Fest is a “Go,” if risk averse, have an umbrella nearby, but you may not need it.
We’ve already see scattered showers with a few thunderstorms today. The main line of showers that we were initially watching passed through earlier today. There are still some more scattered showers and thunderstorms around the area, with some models wanting to push them through our area during the evening tonight.
There are clouds way overhead today. Notice the other clouds, the lower ones, moving north. They’re being blown by strong south winds.
We’ve already had a gust to 31 MPH at BNA.
These winds are expected to carry over through the night into tomorrow.
Expecting for a fairly average day today to finish up the work week. We could see the sun at some points through the day, but we do have a blanket of clouds to block out the full on sunshine.
Current satellite imagery shows the majority of the southeastern U.S. experiencing this cloud cover.
We are on an upward trend with temperatures — today, approaching 70º, Friday in the mid 70s. A gradual increase in cloudiness is forecast for Friday, ahead of our next *several* weather makers.
Updated: Let’s start with the NAM3 Model…
After rain the past few days, the remainder of the work week appears to stay fairly dry.
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Overnight lows will drop into the low 40s, so you may want a jacket before heading out to any plans that you have for the evening. For those warm weather fans, you are in luck; high temperatures will continue to climb each day for the remainder of the week.
Good news…the severe thunderstorm watch is cancelled and our threat for severe weather is over!
Dry weather will persist until Saturday, when another potent system develops over the midwest and moves our direction. Showers and thunderstorms look likely on Saturday, and there is concern that some of these could be strong or severe. While the Storm Prediction Center has not yet highlighted our area for severe weather potential, we will be keeping a close eye on this as the weekend approaches. If there is severe weather Saturday, it will likely be after noon.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern Alabama
Northern Georgia
Western North Carolina
Western South Carolina
Middle and Southeast Tennessee
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