A Few Off/On Showers Sunday, But Most of the Rain is Gone
Most of the rain has gone east. The HRRR model, below, thinks a few new showers will develop and give us a chance of a passing shower or two today:
Here it is, zoomed in:
If you aren’t already rained out from rain yesterday and overnight, you should be good to go for outdoor stuff. The Nashville Chili Fest is a “Go,” if risk averse, have an umbrella nearby, but you may not need it.
More Rain Monday, with a Chance of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Monday Late Afternoon/Night
This is what an active Spring looks like. One system after the other.
Winds will pick up again Monday morning, with gusts in the 20 MPH range signalling the approach of another noisy weathermaker.
Rain ETA is late afternoon, into the evening. Some forecasts have rain beginning in the morning and lunch hour, but the NAM3, GFS, and Euro models all say “no” to that, although perhaps a weak shower or two could sneak through in the morning or early afternoon.
Strong to Severe Storms Are Again Possible. The timing is the same as the rain ETA, around 7 PM to midnight, although the GFS model likes the early part of that ETA.
The main threats are damaging winds and hail.
Tornadoes are a lesser concern. Even the model that usually gives us the most “yes, a tornado!” forecast sounding, the NAM3, thinks the storms will be based too far up from the ground to be of real concern. Some runs of the GFS model agree that the storms will form too far up to present a tornado risk, but the most recent run resolved that feature, so without a consensus with itself, we should not draw conclusions. So, even though a tornado is not the primary threat, the chance is not zero.
The Storm Prediction Center included us in its “risk of large hail” with the “potential for bowing segments [of thunderstorms] capable of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two” Monday night. Here is how they quantify the risk:
This is not a freak-out forecast, but it should have your attention. Today is a good day to secure your trampolines (God’s frisbees) and be sure other vulnerable property and pets will be protected if we get another big storm Monday night.
All the usual disclaimers apply. Consult multiple reliable sources multiple times for local weather as this forecast is refined, updated, and improved.
The Rest of the Week (especially Friday)
Things look quiet for the rest of the week, despite what that crap app at the top of the page says about Wednesday night.
The main uncertainty is what will happen late Thursday into Friday. The latest run of the GFS model has a big ole rainmaker on us Friday morning:
However, the three previous runs of the GFS model have that red “L” south of us. Here’s a GIF of different model runs of the GFS model all for the same time, at 1 AM Friday morning. Watch that “L” dance around, without much of a clue of exactly where the center of the storm will be at 1 AM Friday:
Four different model runs for the same time, three very different solutions.
The location of the “L” matters. If it’s north of us, thunderstorms and maybe severe weather are possible. If not, then we aren’t worried about severe weather, and we will only see rain.
The Euro model puts the “L” way further north than any of the 4 GFS model runs. In fact, the Euro model has it so far north, that although we will likely see storms if it’s right, they shouldn’t be all that strong.
Therefore, there is much we do not know. Rain seems likely at some point late Thursday into Friday, but draw no other conclusions about timing, intensity, etc.
Today’s outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center for Thursday and Friday have the severe weather threat south of us.
As for the next weekend, well, looks pretty good, but that’s based on assumptions about Friday that are unresolved.
Categories: Forecast Blogs