Forecast Blogs

Windy Today, Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Tomorrow


Today and Tonight: Mostly Cloudy Skies and Windy

Expecting for a fairly average day today to finish up the work week. We could see the sun at some points through the day, but we do have a blanket of clouds to block out the full on sunshine.

Current satellite imagery shows the majority of the southeastern U.S. experiencing this cloud cover.

Another point to note about today will be our winds. Winds will get gusty at times with sustained winds in the 15 mph range with gusts as high was 25 mph. These winds are expected to carry over through the night into tomorrow.

http://giphy.com/gifs/windy-qKiANOHYZzpDO

Marginal Risk for Severe Weather on Saturday

We are currently keeping a close eye on the strong to severe weather potential for tomorrow. This forecast is likely to change over the next 24 hours. This is what we currently know.

When: Saturday Afternoon Through Saturday Evening

Timing of these showers and storms is a bit uncertain due to the nature of the event.

The NAM3 loop below displays showers along the Mississippi River in the early morning hours tomorrow, those diminishing (although we will probably still see a little rain Saturday morning), and then developing during the afternoon time frame as they push through our area.

NAM3 Loop From 4 AM Saturday through 7 AM Sunday

For a breakdown of why there is uncertainty on the timing, read this: Later this evening, a strong line of showers and thunderstorms will develop well west of the Mississippi River. This line will push eastward through the night and likely lose strength overnight. This line of showers and storms are expected to re-develop tomorrow, but we do not know an exact time.  Another reason for the uncertainty is due to model inconsistencies. Some models show an earlier arrival while others do not. Right now, it appears that we could see strong to severe storms anywhere from noon tomorrow through 10 PM tomorrow night.

What: Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for Tomorrow

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the majority of Middle Tennessee for tomorrow. The greatest risk appears to be our southeast; however, we are currently included in the Marginal Risk category (think 1 on a 0-5 scale) by the Storm Prediction Center.

The main concern appears to be damaging winds, but due to the nature of the event, localized flooding, hail, and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out at this time.

Conclusions:
  • Morning plans look okay, afternoon/evening plans may get rained out.
  • We will likely see showers at some point through the day tomorrow. The main time frame to expect strong to severe weather along with those showers is from the afternoon to evening hours.
  • The better “storm food” appears to be to our soutwest, but that doesn’t mean we will or won’t see severe weather tomorrow.

This is an evolving forecast that will likely change by tomorrow. Be sure to follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for the latest information.

Showers Exit on Sunday, Keep an Eye on Monday Showers/Thunderstorms

Early Sunday morning, we could have a few straggling showers still in the area. These showers, if any, should push out of our area by the afternoon hours. The loop below displays these showers pushing eastward through the morning.

NAM Loop 4 AM Sunday through 1 PM Sunday

Nashville Chili Festival – Sunday 12 PM to 3 PM

Showers look to *hopefully* be out of the area by the start of the chili festival. Something worth noting, however, is that it could be a bit windy on Sunday with winds in the 10 mph range.

Monday – More Rain, Severe Weather?

By the start of next week, we are expecting for a fairly active weather pattern with showers possible through a good bit of the week. Our first chance will come on Monday.

This far out, the severe weather aspect is still a question mark. The SPC has a Day 4 outlook just to our southeast for severe weather. We will see if we become included in that tomorrow or not. For now, just note that we could see another chance of showers.

GFS Loop 1 AM Monday through 7 AM Tuesday

5-Day Allergy Forecast From Pollen.com



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