Forecast Blogs

From Off & On Rain Saturday to Strong (Severe?) Storms Saturday Night


Tonight: Mostly Cloudy and Windy

There are clouds way overhead today. Notice the other clouds, the lower ones, moving north. They’re being blown by strong south winds.

We’ve already had a gust to 31 MPH at BNA.

These winds are expected to carry over through the night into tomorrow.

http://giphy.com/gifs/windy-qKiANOHYZzpDO

From Off & On Rain Saturday to Storms Saturday Night

To illustrate the forecast, we are using the NAM3 model. Do not take the exact times as definite truth. Use for guidance, not Gospel. You never really have a good idea when a storm’ll show up until you see it on the radar.

I would not cancel tee times or ball game during daylight hours tomorrow, but you’ll need to dodge a few off/on showers. The storm threat looks like an evening thing.

Off & On Showers In the Morning

As showers turn off and on, be ready for winds gusting to 30 MPH.

More Off & On Showers in the Afternoon as a Line of Storms Develops

Saturday Night Storms

The lunchtime update from the Storm Prediction Center drew the 15% probability of severe weather much closer to us than the previous update.

This afternoon, the SPC wrote:

Models are in general agreement with new thunderstorm development occurring along much of the cold front as it advances east into the destabilizing environment. All severe hazards will be possible, given sufficient bulk shear for storm organization, with damaging winds and a tornado threat being the primary severe threats, as modest lapse rates may tend to limit a hail threat. Despite weaker instability with northward extent, the tornado threat may tend to be greater across the northern extent of the Slight Risk area as the low-level jet shifts away from the southern extent of the lower MS Valley.

OK, so, yeah, we are barely outside the “northern extent of the Slight Risk area,” but close enough to it where It Has Our Attention.

My tornado-freak-out meter isn’t zero, but it’s low. We question the amount of instability available to generate tornadonanigans by the time the storms get here. With insufficient instability, meh, no big deal. Dew points aren’t even forecast to get to 60°, which is comforting. But if we get enough instability and high enough dewpoints to pump far enough north — and right now I don’t think we will — wind fields will be tornado-happy and, well…

Right now, I’m not alarmed.  I think we are far enough north. But, that may change. We have not had a legit spring severe weather season in about 4 years. We are in one now.

Tornado or not, it is going to rain pretty hard tomorrow night. There should be lightning and some damaging straight-line wind risk, although in general this system does not look to be as strong as what we saw last week.

This is an evolving forecast that will likely change by tomorrow. Be sure to follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for the latest information.

Showers Exit on Sunday, Keep an Eye on Monday Showers/Thunderstorms

Early Sunday morning, we could have a few straggling showers still in the area. These showers, if any, should push out of our area by the afternoon hours. The loop below displays these showers pushing eastward through the morning.

NAM Loop 1 AM Sunday through 1 PM Sunday

Nashville Chili Festival – Sunday 12 PM to 3 PM

Showers look to *hopefully* be out of the area by the start of the chili festival. Something worth noting, however, is that it could be a bit windy on Sunday with winds in the 10 mph range.

Monday – More Rain, Severe Weather?

By the start of next week, we are expecting for a fairly active weather pattern with showers possible through a good bit of the week. Our first chance will come on Monday.

This far out, the severe weather aspect is still a question mark. The SPC has a Day 4 outlook just to our southeast for severe weather. We will see if we become included in that tomorrow or not. For now, just note that we could see another chance of showers.

GFS Loop 1 AM Monday through 7 AM Tuesday

5-Day Allergy Forecast From Pollen.com



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