No snow tonight.
The precip moved east, faster than all models thought.
Foiled again by cold air chasing the precip.
At 7:25 PM, BNA reported 43°. At 8:05 PM, it’s 39°. And falling.
Rainwater continues running off the roads. Runoff means less water to freeze.
TIMING: Until 3 PM CST today
WINDS: Breezy south winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts around 40 mph.
IMPACTS: Gusty winds can cause tree and branch damage. Loose outdoor objects may be blown around. High profile vehicles, especially those traveling on east-west roadways, may experience travel difficulties.
Clouds are arriving. Rain is coming Wednesday, and it may turn to snow Wednesday night.
Alert! Editor’s Rant. This isn’t about you most of you. Warning: what you’re about to skip over read is indulgent and arguably therapeutic (for me). If you came here for No Rants, Just Weather, I respect that, skip the blue words.
Today things will be warming up and quite mild overnight tonight. Breezy, but really pleasant for mid January, or early November for that matter. Rain will begin late Tuesday night as a precursor to a change coming through the day Wednesday.
26° is our pre-dawn low Tuesday morning.
A Wind Advisory is effective beginning noon Tuesday through 9 AM Wednesday.
Strong south winds, 15-25 MPH, gusting around 40 MPH, may topple lightweight elderly and tip mostly empty garbage cans.
Winds dried wet roads last night. Throughout last night’s dusting, winds blew between 13-17 MPH, gusts 25 to 35 MPH.
Some Middle Tennesseans saw snow. Clarksville’s emergency manager reported 1.2″. Sumner County CoCoRahs observer near Portland logged 1.0″. Same for Greenbrier in Robertson County.
Here’s the low end / high end snowfall probability on either side of NWS-Nashville’s snowfall forecast:
Meanwhile, wind speeds pick up significantly. Sustained winds of 12 mph in the afternoon will quickly jump close to 21 mph after 8 PM – gusting upwards of 35 mph at times in the night.
(Editor’s comments in blue).
Get out and enjoy today. If you need to do anything outside, or put gas in your car, that kind of stuff, do it today or, if you love risk and adventure, Saturday afternoon.
In 48 hours a heavy rain event may turn to snow, possibly cause a flash freeze, and I can’t stop myself from doing this special forecast.
There was inspiration.
I went to the gym tonight. Got home – TMI Alert!!! – got in the shower, water was warm, then suddenly all the hot water ran out but I was still sudsy and had to suffer shivering through the cold water, which I flipped off then on, then got out of there. Fast.
We’ve already had some rain fall this morning, with a few more showers lingering through this afternoon and evening.
High temps today will run a few degrees warmer than yesterday at around 50°.
The Nam 3km model illustrates the progress of the showers through the day today. It’s looping through 6:00 am tomorrow morning.
The warming trend started Wednesday will continue on Friday with high temps in the low 50°s. Clouds will hang around through the day, but we should remain dry.
Friday is the last day we’ll see this week where it’s both warm(ish) and dry. Great day to finish any small outdoor tasks before Old Man Winter arrives late Saturday.
First, a quick aside: Now that we’re drawing closer to Saturday, we’re beginning to see where the specific forecast challenges are. Keep in mind, snow/winter forecasting is tricky and could change at the drop of a hat! Stay tuned for more updates as they come!
Late Friday, a swift-moving warm front will push north through Middle Tennessee. This warm front will bring our high temp on Saturday into the low 60°s and plenty of Gulf moisture into the area. The moisture is key to why we expect so much rain.
A large, strong cold front will then swing through in the early morning hours of Saturday. The NAM 3km has heavy rain/thunderstorms approaching Nashville just before sunrise. See gif below – the animation begins just after midnight on Friday, ending Saturday about 6 PM.
The NAM model is known for being aggressive when it comes to storms; meaning its bark is worse than its bite more often than not. NWS Nashville is calling for plenty of rain with a few thunderstorms in the mix – not expecting severe storms. The big thing to watch for Saturday morning and afternoon is the heavy rain.
The Weather Prediction Center is still expecting us to see upwards of 2 – 3″ of rain between Saturday and Sunday morning. As of now, there is a concern of flooding along rivers and creeks if this much rain does fall over us but no watches or advisories have been issued yet.
So.. to Snow or not to Snow?
As of now, it’s still hard to say. On Saturday evening, the cold Arctic air will make its arrival, but will there be enough moisture in the air to form snowflakes? The sad answer: not very likely, at least not enough to make a good snowball with.
NWS Nashville forecast has this to say about snow:
"My latest forecast snowfall totals still remain in the dusting to 1 inch range, with lowest amounts in our southwest, and highest amounts over our northwest counties where colder air arrives earliest..."
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