Tornado Watch Until 7pm, Severe Weather Potential This Afternoon/Evening

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A Tornado Watch has been issued for both of our counties until 7pm tonight.

Our probabilities from the Storm Prediction Center are:

  • 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
  • 15% chance of severe hail within 25 miles
  • 10% of a tornado within 25 miles (10% or greater chance of EF2+ tornado)

Our main threat today continues to be damaging straight-line winds, but severe hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. read more

Check Your Storm Drains and Gutters, Rain’s Coming!

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Forecast rain amounts have increased in the last 24 hours, with widespread 2-3 inch rainfall expected between Friday evening and Sunday evening.

Now that the leaves have fallen, this is a good time to check the drainage on your property and clear out any gutters/drains/culverts/ditches that are designed to carry water away. While the flood threat is low, clogged drains could create an issue. read more

Rain, Cold Mornings, Weekend Rain Event (storm/snow comments)

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Rain showers later today/tonight.

  • 1. Brief, chilly, and unevenly rainfall caused by – impress coworkers at holiday parties with a well timed – this “is common for these clipper systems.”
  • 2. Rainout/Washout unlikely.
  • 3. You may hear talk of “snow” — that’s for non-accumulating snow potential on the plateau.
  • 4. GEO ICYMI: The plateau is east of us – think between Cookeville and Crossville – they’re at higher elevation – easier for them to snow than us.

Near/Freezing Morning Temps & Thursday’s Marginal Fire Danger

  • 1. Ice may form where fog develops on bridges and overpasses Weds & Thurs mornings.
  • 2. A marginal fire danger Thursday afternoon will discourage outdoor burning – dry airmass with low relative humidity + winds in the low teens = may cause fire containment problems.

Big Rainmaker Coming This Weekend

  • 1. TIMING: best guess right now arriving Saturday night and departing around lunch Sunday – timing will probably change.
  • 2. RAIN: on average 1″ to 1.5″ – this too may change either way – models diverge in key areas – this reduces forecast confidence.
  • 3. STORMS: again our confidence is shaky here due to model disagreement – the path of the storm favors thunderstorms – but other essential ingredients (instability, lapse rates) are very weak in the models – SPC excluded us from severe weather risk – no risk will be introduced unless and until models develop agreement – more to follow later with new data.
  • 4. SNOW: not for us – our ground will be way too warm – unreceptive to ice – models at this range routinely advertise snow that never happens – even the Euro (above) pulls the colder air columns way too far north of us.

Quick References:

Weather changes constantly.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for any changes to this forecast. read more

3 Things: Monday, Tuesday, & Ladies and Gentlemen The Weekend

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Skies clearing today. Looks pretty good.

  1. Monday morning. HRRR has a weak rain band tomorrow (Monday) morning. Inconsequential.

2. Tuesday morning. Cold brief rain if the HRRR is right (model cuts off before arrival):

3. Weekend rain. Timing and “accuracy” iffy at this range. A soaker is best bet. Not sure if Saturday or Sunday or both. May involve thunderstorms but no current severe concerns. Notice those pinks and blues as the system moves away – common false flag for wintry precip. More about this system tomorrow. read more

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