Weekend Rain, Storms (?), and Just in Case Someone Says Sn*w This Weekend…

A Great Lakes snowstorm may spin a little rain into Middle Tennessee Tuesday – no biggie here – HRRR model below:

Mild days, cold mid week mornings – near freezing – ahead:

A big system will plow through this weekend. Here it is:

1. Severe threat Saturday will be in the Tex-Ark-La-Miss area.
2. Rain is likely here late Saturday through Sunday, with a conditional severe threat. Meaning, a few conditions will have to be met to develop severe thunderstorms for us late Saturday into Sunday. Timing may change. Data not super reliable.
3. “Although [storm-powering] instability is forecast to be relatively weak on Sunday due to a cooler and drier airmass over parts of the Southeast, isolated severe storms could occur if a line of strong storms can become organized.” Storm Prediction Center (SPC), 12/4/23.
4. “Predictability too low” for severe weather for Sunday, says SPC.
5. Rain is likely. WPC rainfall estimates for the weekend range from 1″ to 1.5″, with pockets of 2″ around Middle Tennessee.
6. Euro model above shows blues and pinks indicating frozen precip after the cold front passes. This is a common false flag for accumulating snow:
   • Models struggle with precip type at this range.
   • Usually it’s just rain – as the subfreezing air approaches, dry air overcomes the back edge of the departing system, eliminating the precip – or – the precip pulls away before subfreezing air can catch up. Early December Ohio Valley lows rarely if ever cause us wintry precip problems.
   • The ground will be too warm to hold falling snow or ice.
   • Nothing to see, so far, in the data.

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