18z model runs (six of them, below) depict Wednesday’s severe event southwest of – but not including – Davidson and Williamson Counties:
This aligns with the 15% severe threat for Wednesday from the Storm Prediction Center.
Category: Featured Blog
Severe Storms Possible Wednesday
Lunchtime rain is moving out. Should be clearing this afternoon.
Strong/Severe Storm Potential Wednesday
This will all depend on two things: morning rain and where a high pressure is:
The Storm Prediction Center has put Nashville and Will Co under a 5% chance of seeing a severe storm within 25 miles of a point. The southwestern half of Williamson County is under a 15% probability, but I would not pay too much attention to that — the risk isn’t 10% higher in Franklin vs Brentwood, or the rest of our area.
Rain/Wind Monday, & a Look at a Potential Severe Weather Event Wednesday
Substantial wind shear will be in place as a line of storms approaches Monday morning. ETA late morning/lunch. But instability should be near zero, reducing if not eliminating most/all severe storm concerns. Winds may still be strong (40 MPH or so) — and we cannot totally rule out a severe wind event — but there is no reason for a hail or tornado concern Monday.
Rain Sunday, Storms Possible Monday & Wednesday–a Sweet Forecast
Rain Today, Storms Possible Monday, Stronger Storms Possible Wednesday
Today’s Rain, and a Look at Monday & Wednesday Storm Systems
Three Waves of Rain (Storms?): What We Know (And Don’t Know)
Wind, Rain, and Maybe Storms Early Next Week.
Quiet - Bit Rainy - Storms Next Week?
Nothing happening until Thursday, when rain sets up north of us.
GFS Model Thursday Will it get here? Maybe not. Thursday showers will mainly stay north of I-40. They may not even make it into Davidson County.
But Friday and Friday night that stationary rainmaking boundary should sag south and send a few off and on, scattered, and unconcerning showers into to our area. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible, but just thunder and lightning, nothing severe.
