HEAVY RAIN
We’re starting off our Sunday with some rain. HRRR model:
We are not expecting anything severe, but you might see some heavier rain or hear some rumbles of thunder as this cold front moves in. The biggest threat? Localized flooding, but this is a low probability hazard.
PSA:
Temperatures will climb above 32 degrees at around 10 or 11 AM for the first time in a few days, allowing for some serious melting to begin, aided by the sun. It will take a while for all the ice and snow to melt. Melting occurs at different rates so there may still be slick spots, but today will be a dramatic improvement.
After yesterday’s record breaking snow, last nights extreme cold, and today’s below freezing temps, you can expect the snow to stick around today. Unless your car has ice skates instead of wheels, AVOID DRIVING IF POSSIBLE!! The roads are still very dangerous and icy. If you absolutely have to drive, make sure to go very slow and leave plenty of room between you and other cars. Don’t make sudden movements. Also be sure to bring extra warm clothes, food and water in case of emergency.
Our counties are currently under a Winter Storm Warning (in effect until 8pm tonight). According to the NWS:
Can expect 3 to 5+ inches of accumulation… higher amounts could be seen locally. Let it be known that this is an all snow event. None of the freezing rain/sleet. Seeing pretty quick accumulation from flurries already.
Last month seemed like never ending severe weather. This month seems like never ending winter weather.
Today’s weather is pretty plain and simple. Slightly warmer temps, a little breezy, and no rain. Now on to the fun stuff.
Put very scientifically by NWS-Nashville: “Yep, looks like old man winter will be taking another swing at the mid state on Thursday.”
Middle Tennessee, in general, can expect this:
Timing remains iffy right now because we only have the lower resolution global models. Those models are the GFS and Euro. Both show a big blue blob (snow) moving through starting Thursday around 9 AM and lasting into early evening Thursday. Again, timing does not appear at all solid. Remember the above slide that says “Event is still 2 days away and forecast will likely change.” We will update you on changes on Twitter and in future blogs, as needed.
It is 32 at BNA as we publish this blog. Temps won’t get out of the 30’s today with a high around 39, so expect accellerating melting this afternoon. Although the sun will start to come out still watch out for some ice on the roads especially on bridges, overpasses and area of elevation.
Snow is coming.
The latest HRRR model run delivers snow earlier than the earlier 4-6 PM timeline. It thinks the wintry stuff could be here as early as 1 or 2 PM. See below:
Expect the first hour or so of snow to melt on contact. The ground is very warm. But heavy snowfall rates should supercool everything, and eventually allow for the snow to stick to all surfaces. NWS-Nashville increased snow totals.
Snow is coming.
The latest HRRR model run delivers snow earlier than the earlier 4-6 PM timeline. It thinks the wintry stuff could be here as early as 1 or 2 PM. See below:
Expect the first hour or so of snow to melt on contact. The ground is very warm. But heavy snowfall rates should supercool everything, and eventually allow for the snow to stick to all surfaces. NWS-Nashville increased snow totals.
NEW YEAR’S DAY RECAP
Instability (not enough) – shear (way too much) combo was off today. Storms rotated and we had cause for the one tornado warning in west Williamson County, but by the time that storm got to the Will Co line it lost concerning tight rotation. We think Ned’s cap hung on just long to keep storms from exploding over 20kft, so we escaped New Year’s Day unscathed.
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