The cloudy, dreary week that we have experienced is coming to an end!
Clouds this morning will erode and leave a mostly sunny sky this afternoon. Still quite cool and breezy with a high of 54.
The hourly forecast for Friday Night Football is chilly.
Trick or Treat?
Saturday will start off cold with mid to upper 30s commonplace. Some patchy light frost is possible in some of the colder pockets but nothing substantial.
We will warm up nicely with low 60s in the afternoon until cooling down to around 50 during trick or treat festivities.
Cold Front Incoming
This cold front will sweep through Sunday night and bring the coldest air so far this season.
NWS Nashville’s AFD:
Lows Monday morning will be the coldest we’ve seen so far this season with some locations dropping as low as the upper 20s. We are certainly looking at widespread frost and potentially a widespread freeze. Tuesday morning looks like another widespread frost before temperatures begin to warm for the rest of the week.
Plant enthusiasts will want to cover or bring beloved plants inside.
Another frosty morning possible Tuesday and then upper 60s to around 70 late week!
If you loved yesterday’s cool drizzle, today is also for you.
Green line close to the red line from this morning’s weather balloon means temps and dewpoints are in a serious, committed, long term relationship for today. Relative humidity 80% to 90% allows for drizzle.
Expect cloudy skies with occasional annoying drizzle.
But look on the bright side, it will be a few degrees warmer without yesterday’s wind, highs low 60°s.
Tonight could still feature a chance of drizzle and even some patchy fog. Low of 52.
Quiet Monday and Tuesday
We’ll get a break in the precipitation Monday and probably Tuesday as well. Clouds will linger both days but don’t be surprised if the sun surprises us Monday.
Euro Model keeps any Monday and Tuesday rain/drizzle to our west and east.
Another Gulf Storm?
Yep. Tropical Storm Zeta will make landfall along the Yucatan sometime Monday night. Once it gets out into the Gulf of Mexico, it is forecasted to strengthen into a hurricane before making a second landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast.
NHC thinks the center of Zeta will landfall somewhere between central LA and the FL panhandle.
What does this mean for us? All depends on where Zeta goes, and whether one side or the other is the wet side. For now, expect an increase in showers Wednesday/Thursday at the very least. Most likely Thursday morning, but some (not all) data shows potential for heavy rain Wednesday that’ll rain everything out.
Temperatures won’t be that bad though. Maybe low 70s towards the middle of the week.
Too early Trick or Treat forecast looks cool but dry. Upper 50°s.
The cold front that moved through yesterday left us with a beautiful fall day.
Tonight will be cool with a low of 46°.
Similar story Wednesday albeit a bit warmer. Maybe touching 80° by the afternoon.
Another Cold Front Late Thursday
Cold front ETA Thursday night. Some light rain is possible with this passage.
Euro Model isn’t impressed, only light rain. Doesn’t look like a rainout.
GFS also has the same idea. Precipitable Water (measure of moisture in the atmosphere) isn’t impressive, but enough for at least isolated showers.
Any rain will quickly exit the area by Friday morning.
Temperatures will fall behind the front.
Notice that “38” Saturday morning! That’s the morning we’ll have to watch for a frost. NWS Nashville mentions this possibility in their discussion.
After a pretty warm weekend, highs Friday will be mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with mid and upper 30s following Saturday morning. This will likely produce patchy frost across much of the area.
NWS AFD 10-13-2020
Grass seed/plant enthusiasts should take note. Still a little early for our typical first freeze but if you live outside of Nashville, your Saturday morning temp could be a couple degrees cooler. 38° is the official low at BNA, many backyards get colder than that. Not expecting anyone to freeze (at least right now, we aren’t), but frost is likely.
Hurricane Delta is expected to make landfall on the Louisiana Coast Friday Evening. It will impact the same areas, now covered in blue tarps, because of Hurricane Laura.
Models starting to agree on timing.
The GFS model predicts light rain as early as Friday night, a break during the day Saturday, then off and on precipitation Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday afternoon/evening.
The Euro model is very similar. Light rain as early as Friday night, with off and on heavier rain through the weekend.
Some of the rain could be heavy at times, especially Saturday-Sunday. Both models end the rain Sunday night-Monday morning.
Washouts possible, but flooding not a current concern.
We’ve been dry the past few weeks, so rain will be absorbed. Rain will be spread out over the weekend, allowing for runoff.
Also not of great concern but as always with weakening tropical systems, we’ll watch for a low-probably/weak tornado threat. SPC keeps the a low-end threat just to our south.
Here’s what NWS Nashville says:
The severe weather risk with Delta appears quite minimal as forecast instability will be near zero and the associated low level wind fields look to weaken quite rapidly as the system moves across Middle Tennessee.
NWS AFD 10-08-2020
No instability = no tornado concerns. But with the center passing very close by, you can never totally rule a brief, usually weaker spin-up. Anxiety level is near zero.
Editor’s Note: I would not lose sleep over it.
Winds could gust in the 25-35 mph range but that isn’t enough to warrant concerns.
Stay tuned in to future updates as Delta approaches and make sure you are receiving the newest information.
Sunday will be partly cloudy with a high of 83. Dewpoints in the mid 60s will make it feel sticky as well.
Upper-level low to our south might try and bring up a few Sunday afternoon showers. HRRR Model isn’t impressed and neither are we.
A few passing clouds to tonight with a low of 64.
Monday will have a “fall feel” to it. Our high will come around noon and once a cold front passes, temperatures will fall throughout the afternoon.
The 1-hour Euro model predicts rain beginning as early as noon, lasting through the afternoon hours.
Most of the rain will come after the cold front has passed. This will eliminate meaningful severe weather concerns.
Thunder will be possible directly along the front and the bulk of the rainfall should be post-frontal. More shear is available due to the front, but soundings quickly become deeply saturated, killing lapse rates and removing any excessive chance for convection to get started.
NWS Nashville AFD 9-27-2020
Previous model runs suggested that rain may linger into Tuesday. That now looks unlikely. So probably rain just in the afternoon into the evening.
Rainfall totals look to be in the 0.25″ to 0.75″ range with some spots maybe getting an inch. But on average, expect 0.35″ or so, which is usually enough to rain out Monday night sports stuff. Depends on your field.
Monday’s rain is the only expected rain event until at least Saturday, October 3.
Chill in the Air
Check out the temp drop in the week ahead.
A second cold front will drop through Thursday-Thursday night. For now, it looks like the front will pass in dry fashion.
This will allow for fall temps to settle in.
Lows in the mid 40s are likely. Some of the colder spots may see low 40s Saturday morning. Remember in many low lying areas backyard temps can drop more than a few degrees below the official low.
Our average first Fall frost happens November 1. NWS-Nashville didn’t mention frost concerns in its forecast discussion covering the next seven days, so that’s a good sign for planters. But I’ll bet a few backyard weather stations will see upper 30°s around sunrise some time in the next seven days.
Not a single system on the map and nothing is expected to form over the next 5 days.
After a busy couple of months, we could use a break
Dense fog this morning will give way to partly cloudy skies and warm temps this afternoon. Highs should top out at 80. No rain.
Dew points will be in the mid 60s which will make it feel rather sticky.
Rain Chances Increase Sunday
Maybe a touch warmer and more humid. Low 80s for highs with dew points in the mid 60s.
Might have to dodge a shower or two.
Euro Model shows some activity during the afternoon hours.
If a shower interrupts your cookout/lake trip/golf outing, probably won’t last long with no flooding or severe concerns.
Cold Front Szn
Before we feel the cool air and low dew points, we’ll have to deal with the rain.
Cold Front #1 will swing through Monday. This will bring an increased round of showers/storms. Severe weather looks very low at this time.
Here’s what NWS Nashville says
Next chance of rainfall for all comes on Monday as a cold front is set to move through the area. Could see some periods of heavy rainfall and a few storms Monday afternoon. Expecting total rainfall amounts to be below 2 inches.
NWS AFD 9-26-2020
Accordingly, WPC has introduced a low-end flash flooding threat for us Monday.
Rain should hang around Tuesday before ending Tuesday evening.
Make Way Cold Front #2
The second front will push through Wednesday night-Thursday morning. Once this moves through, highs could drop into the 60 with morning lows in the 40s!
CPC shows a very high amplitude pattern. Above normal temps west of the Rockies, below normal temps east of the Rockies.