Couple degrees cooler this afternoon because of more cloud cover. Highs only around 93…
But it’s still oppressively humid.
Already East Nashville, Fontanel, Riverwalk are in-line for storms. Will it storm in your backyard? Maybe or maybe not. HRRR Model thinks someone will get the water balloon during the afternoon/evening hours.
These storms might throw a tantrum and produce gusty winds but severe weather remains low.
SPC has us just south of the wind risk, so not expecting widespread severe winds today.
Copy/Paste today’s forecast for Thursday: Highs low 90s, pop-up mainly afternoon/evening storms. NWS Nashville mentions that while the severe threat is low, one may go rogue and try to overachieve. Won’t last long.
Fewer Storms Starting Friday
High pressure arrives, so storms should be fewer in number. But with fewer storms comes hotter temperatures.
Mid 90s appear likely this weekend, dew points still in the low 70s.
These warm/hot temperatures will most definitely persist through August.
Hot and humid weather will be the theme for this blog.
Highs Friday will be around 95 with a heat index in the low 100s.
HRRR Model fires up showers all around us but leaves us dry. Don’t assume that this particular run is 100% accurate.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Models are guidance, not gospel.
If storms make it into our area, they could bring gusty winds and heavy downpours but severe weather isn’t expected. Some of these downpours could be heavy enough to get the attention of the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC).
WPC highlights much of the state with a 5-10% for flash flooding with 25 miles of a point. Below is a quote from their forecast discussion.
support widespread scattered convection across these areas with
locally heavy rains and isolated runoff issues.
While not a typical summertime flooding situation, always be mindful of water-covered roads. Turn around don’t drown.
Hotter This Weekend
Upper 90s are likely along with those 70s dew points that we all love.
The afternoon shower chances stay with us, hopefully providing some much needed relief.
Next Week and Beyond
It’s going to stay hot for a while…
NWS Nashville indicates a break down in the ridge that is keeping us hot. This could allow for increased shower chances and thus lower temps as early as Wednesday. Stay tuned.
Beyond Next Week?
Climate Prediction Center highlights above average temperatures for the entire country from July 25-August 7.
Warm Saturday with lower dew points: mid to upper 60s instead of 70s
Stormy Night Into Sunday
SPC has our area in a 5% risk for seeing severe gusts within 25 miles of your location.
Note: the above outlook is valid until 7AM Sunday.
HRRR Model wants to bring the storms in 4-5AM, with maybe so lingering showers lasting trough 8AM. These times are of course subject to change as newer model data becomes available. Check back on the Twitter page throughout the day.
After the morning round of storms, details regarding Sunday afternoon remain fuzzy.
SPC has kept the 5% risk for damaging winds and large hail (see below)
But they’ve also included a 2% risk for an isolated tornado centered on Kentucky/Tennessee.
Going back to the HRRR Model, once the morning storms exit, more redevelopment is possible late afternoon/early evening.
NWS Nashville thinks our best timing for storms will also be in the afternoon.
Drying Out and Heating Up
After the weekend mess, we’ll probably stay dry throughout next week with HOT being the key word.
Wouldn’t be surprised if one of those ‘96 days’ get bumped up a degree or two.
Storms are ongoing in Kentucky as I write this. Those storms will miss us, but they may send south cold air which can trigger us some rain and thunderstorms this afternoon. It’s iffy tho, let’s dive in:
SPC has all of Davidson and Williamson Counties in a 5% chance of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of a point.
The 15% probability area is juuuust to our northeast:
Localized flooding is also possible, but that risk appears greatest to our north and east.
Tornadoes/Hail are not a concern.
HRRR Model has the storms over Kentucky missing us. It then initiates more storms in the afternoon and evening hours. These could have patio furniture moving winds.
Storms might form as early as 3PM but should be out of here by sunset once instability (storm fuel) goes down. Expect timing to change as we understand how the KY storms might influence the atmosphere here this afternoon.
Dewpoints will remain in the low 70s today. Plenty of storm fuel is just sitting atop us, just waiting to be released. If that cold air from KY gets here, thunderstorms will have no problem forming.
We’ll update this on Twitter through the day.
Saharan Air Layer
Latest model below. Notice the SAL shouldn’t be as thick today, and should clear out by Monday night.
Another small SAL shows up mid/late week, no big deal.
Hot, Humid Week Ahead
Oppressive humidity, y’all. Dewpoints in the 70s this week.
Add that to low 90s temps and the heat index will sneak near 101 Monday.
NWS Nashville’s discussion mentions drying possible Monday as high pressure moves over us. The protection of high pressure will be short-lived, and it may be a false protection as the Euro model thinks a Crazy Ivan rain/storm system is possible Monday afternoon (with no particular worries):
Afternoon heating will set of random showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday — and lasting into the holiday weekend. Without high pressure, but with oppressive humidity and temps trying to climb into the 90s, storms could deliver heavy rainfall to the chosen, with frequent lightning, potentially strong downburst winds.
The best chance for rain this week looks to be Wednesday, but it’s possible anytime this week because we’ll be
Euro Ensemble Mean hints at over 3 inches through July 7.
Today will feature similar temps to yesterday, maybe a touch warmer from low to mid 80s. Dew points will be a bit higher with upper 50s likely:
Showers (if they even make it this far west) will be very few and far between. The HRRR Model (below) shows a few brief specks moving through the Mid-State:
Bottom Line: If you’re looking for an uninterrupted day outside, odds are in your favor.
Tonight’s low will be around 63.
Change Is Coming (not the good kind)
Spring weather this week was thanks to an upper low to our east. That low will pull away, allowing our temps and dew points to rise. Humid air is not far behind, slowly filtering in Thursday, Friday, and the weekend.
Upper 80s temps are likely Friday with 90s returning Friday and into the weekend.
Saturday marks the official start of summer with a predicted high of 94. The dewpoint will be “uncomfortable.”
Rain Returns Early Next Week
Models have been hinting at an uptick in precipitation starting as early as Sunday.
Average average rainfall is forecast by this CPC outlook for June 22-26.
Severe weather isn’t expected right now, and it’s difficult to say who will see rain and how much.
Reminder time. We’ve had an Actual Spring, but summer is imminent.
If you liked the air-you-can-wear weather we felt Saturday, Sunday won’t disappoint. High today 93 with heat index around 95.
Here’s the heat index from the HRRR Model, suggesting mid 90s. Remember these numbers are in the shade.
This morning was more humid, with upper 60s dewpoints. The dewpoint will drop into the low 60s this afternoon because hot, moist air at the surface will mix with drier air aloft. Still hot, though.
Now’s a good time review the difference.
Rain is unlikely and not expected.
Cristobal & You.
Cristobal (pronounced “Crease Toe Ball,” say it right, y’all) won’t “hit” us. The center of it will pass west, but we may end up close enough to get some rain and maybe a low-end tornado risk.
Cristobal is forecast to make landfall on the SE Louisiana Coast tonight as a tropical storm.
It’ll move into Arkansas Monday as a downgraded tropical depression. For us this means an increase in clouds and humidity Monday. Dewpoints will be over 70 (“Oppressive” on our chart) with an afternoon high 91.
Rain is not expected Monday, but watch it try to work close by Monday afternoon/evening per the HRRR model:
By early Tuesday, the Euro Model suggests Cristobal-related rain will get far enough east and reach us. Note: this is just one model’s interpretation of what might happen.
If the the storm shifts eastward at all, it will mean more rain for us. There are no current worries about flooding.
There will be a tornado threat on the east side of the storm, but right now we think we are too far east to be included. That risk is more west of us in West Tennessee.
BUT! Stay updated for forecast changes. Note how this NWS-Nashville forecast discussion ended this morning:
The latest suite of models is still coming in this morning, but even the 06Z suite is illustrating a good amount of shear along and west of I-65 late morning through afternoon Tuesday. I’ll do more analysis with this afternoon’s forecast package, so check back for our latest thoughts.
NWS-Nashville forecast discussion 9:16 AM
After Cristobal moves away late Tuesday into Wednesday, our weather pattern looks drier and maybe even cooler.
CPC outlook for June 12-16 suggest below temps, maybe even well-below average temperatures.
Highs will be around 90 with dew points hovering between sticky and uncomfortable.
Few more clouds than Tuesday but rain chances still remain low. The HRRR model thinks rain and a few nonsevere storms will are possible on the fringes of Middle Tennessee, but nothing impacting us.
The HRRR model thinks rain and storms will develop just after midnight along the Tennessee River, intensify, then arrive here around sunrise:
Storms aren’t expected to be severe. This should be mainly a rain event, and it looks like this little event will start to fizzle on arrival.
As instability (storm fuel) rises and more storms try to form west and come east our way, a few strong storms are possible.
SPC has all of Davidson and Williamson Counties in a 5% probability for damaging winds and/or 1″ hail within 25 miles of you (the wind image is below).
There is not a tornado concern.
Storms should start to decrease in coverage and intensity as the sun sets.
High temps will be cooler/upper 80s due to cloud cover.
Flooding is also not a concern with average rainfall amounts around 0.25 inches (your location will vary). Blue areas in the below graphic show a few spots getting 1″ of rain, but that’s thought to be SW of us. We’ll watch for that. The heavier rain area may shift, but even if we get 1″ locally we should not have a flash flooding problem.
Friday & The Weekend
Friday expect classic summertime, primarily afternoon and evening storms, mostly below severe levels with lightning the main concern.
Saturday there are still pop up rain/storm chances, but those chances appear to be decreasing. We don’t see any rain in Sunday’s forecast, but the weekend is not coming with a cool down or humidity decrease:
Editor’s Note: Cristobal
Here’s how you say it:
If you’re on the Gulf Coast or planning to go, get your Cristobal forecasting from hurricanes.gov. We are watching Cristobal for inland rain, not for coastal landfall. Gulf hurricanes and tropical storms can deliver us significant rainfall. Right now this one doesn’t look like it’ll do that, but it’s too early to say.
Below is a total rainfall graphic into Wednesday, June 10. That’s Cristobal at the base of the Yucatan peninsula. This is the Euro model and may be Way Off, but its idea is the rainmaking center will pass west of us. At this range, I don’t trust this model, and neither should you.
Off and on rain this morning will hang around this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the afternoon rain, but high winds, hail, and tornadoes are not expected locally.
WPC thinks we may see up to 1″ of rain in some spots through 7 AM Thursday:
Most of us will get around 0.5″. An overachiever might parks itself over your area, where you could easily pick up that inch of rain. Unlike the past several days, rain should continue long after sunset. We may even have overnight rain, but not severe weather. The flooding threat is low, around 5% to 10%, per WPC’s outlook here:
Temps will be cooler than yesterday thanks to the cloud cover: High around 77, Low around 66.
Stronger Storms Possible Thursday (if we get anything at all…).
Yes, warm with scattered, primarily afternoon/evening storms. However, a couple storms could be a bit on the stronger side. That is, if we get anything at all.
Threats & Risks
The Storm Prediction Center has expended the risk area to now include ALL of Davidson and Williamson Counties. (5% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a given point)
SPC dropped us from its 2% tornado outlook.
While this is a much lower threat, you should plan activities where you have immediate access to weather information and are able to quickly respond to shelter in the event of lightning, or less likely, a severe thunderstorm warning. Do not leave yourself vulnerable. Know what you are going to do and where you are going to go should it be necessary.
Stay Connected, Current Model Runs Look Quiet Thursday (for now…)
All that said . . . look at the HRRR model running through the rest of today (Wednesday) through 7 PM Thursday. After a lot of rain today and tonight, then Thursday looks . . . uneventful, with only a few storms widely scattered around Middle Tennessee.
The Euro model is similar for Thursday.
It’s possible, then, that we don’t see any rain — or very little rain and no storms — during the day Thursday. However, these models may be way off, so continue to check back through the day today and Thursday for revisions (upgrades and downgrades) to this forecast.
(Editor’s Note: My anxiety level is pretty low.)
Drier, Sunnier, Cooler Weekend
Four words you always want in the same sentence. We still have to get through the rinse/repeat scattered showers/storms on Friday. But once a cold front moves through late Friday night, that will signal an end to this “outdoor plans ruining” forecast.
Check out these temperatures starting Saturday and lasting through early next week: