Because this is the eve of the Country Music Marathon, Franklin’s Main Street Festival, countless baseball, soccer, [insert preferred outdoor sport] games, let’s go way overboard with the weather models. We’ll ask the weather models about Tonight, Sat 7 a.m., Sat 1p.m., and Sat 7 p.m. Sunday’s forecast is mentioned at the end.
Everything You Wanted to Know About Saturday’s Wet Weather
5 Models Agree: Rain Saturday (& A Little More Rain Sunday)
Rain is very likely Saturday. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall Saturday morning, during the Country Music Marathon. Here are the models:
European: Rain arrives Friday night and lasts through Saturday morning. By 7 a.m., the rain is along and south of I-40 (see below).
Four Weather Models Think It’ll Rain Saturday
GFS and European wx models have been predicting rain Saturday morning. Today, there are other models now in range of the weekend. So, let’s dig in:
Country Music Marathon & Saturday Morning
Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts light rain all morning. Earlier this week, this model was calling for 4 times as much rain.
Rain: Wednesday & Saturday’s Country Music Marathon
Rain Wednesday
(Updated around 8pm Tuesday night)
Earlier today the models suggested the rain would arrive early Wednesday morning. Tonight’s model runs suggest the rain may hold off until mid morning.
For example, the WRF delivers us the heaviest rain around 1pm:
Monday Update: Rain Early Wednesday. Wet Country Music Marathon.
We are in the peak of tornado season in Middle Tennessee. The good news is there is no widespread severe weather in the forecast.
Today
Our beautiful, “normal” Springtime weather continues.
Tuesday
Clouds arrive.
Week Ahead: Rain Wednesday & Wet Country Music Marathon
Monday & Tuesday
The run of nice weather continues. Monday we’ll hit 73, Tuesday 74. Rain may sneak in late Tuesday night.
Wednesday
A cold front is forecast to shove rain and maybe a few storms during the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Severe weather is possible off to our west, but modest dew points and meager instability should limit our severe weather potential. Expect around 1/2″ rain, mostly Wednesday morning.
Thursday & Friday
Clouds and sun, highs 67 Thursday and 71 Friday.
Saturday – Country Music Marathon
COUNTRY MUSIC MARATHON – APRIL 27, 2013
Before any “please don’t let it rain this weekend” folks freak out, remember: the Marathon is six days away. That’s a long time in forecast-land. Many think forecasts for weather happening more than 72 hours away (some would argue 48 hours away) are in voodoo land.
So, with that qualification, here is what smart people think.
1. National Weather Service – Nashville:
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM (THIS TIME FROM THE DESERT SW) PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. IN STICKING WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS OF SLOWING FRONTAL APPROACHES...WILL TRIM BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ON FRIDAY AND KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY LASTING INTO SUNDAY PER THE EURO/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES.
Beautiful Weather Continues
This will be easy. Expect beautiful weather Sunday (68) and Monday (71).
Rain arrives Tuesday, probably late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. There’s no severe weather on the horizon.
Enjoy the weekend!
Haiku-cast: Frost Tonight. Sunny & Cool Weekend
Frost Tonight. Not the
Poet. Real frost. Cover plants,
or else they may die.
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN LATE TONIGHT... .AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. AS CLEARING COMMENCES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. WITH ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT EXISTS...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.
Tonight’s Dying Severe Wx Chances & Weekend Update
Tonight the Storm Prediction Center removed all of Davidson County and some of Williamson County from its Slight Risk (of severe weather) outlook. Only south Williamson County is hanging on:
Tornado
There’s only a fringe chance of a tornado tonight: a 2% probability of a tornado happening within 25 miles of those in Williamson County:
Storm Concerns Downgraded, But Still There
Noon weather balloon data from Nashville and surrounding NWS offices showed a real, but lessening, severe weather threat for tonight.
The squall line nearing the Mississippi River continues to underwhelm – very few warnings on the line at all, and none (as of this writing ~ 3pm) on the segment of the line heading into Tennessee.
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