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Week Ahead: Rain Wednesday & Wet Country Music Marathon

Monday & Tuesday

The run of nice weather continues. Monday we’ll hit 73, Tuesday 74. Rain may sneak in late Tuesday night.

Wednesday

A cold front is forecast to shove rain and maybe a few storms during the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Severe weather is possible off to our west, but modest dew points and meager instability should limit our severe weather potential. Expect around 1/2″ rain, mostly Wednesday morning.

Thursday & Friday

Clouds and sun, highs 67 Thursday and 71 Friday.

Saturday – Country Music Marathon

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COUNTRY MUSIC MARATHON – APRIL 27, 2013

 

 

 

Before any “please don’t let it rain this weekend” folks freak out, remember: the Marathon is six days away. That’s a long time in forecast-land. Many think forecasts for weather happening more than 72 hours away (some would argue 48 hours away) are in voodoo land.

So, with that qualification, here is what smart people think.

1.   National Weather Service – Nashville:

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM (THIS TIME FROM THE DESERT SW) PUSHES EAST 
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS 
FOR THE WEEKEND. IN STICKING WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS OF SLOWING 
FRONTAL APPROACHES...WILL TRIM BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS)
ON FRIDAY AND KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY LASTING INTO SUNDAY 
PER THE EURO/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES.

Translation: they think it’ll rain.

2.   The Weather Models

There are several weather models, but let’s look at the 2 most widely-used for voodoo-land forecasting:

European Model (the Europeans have more history and a better weather model than we do)

7am – very light rain. Behold the heavier rain approaching from the southwest, moving in our direction. This does not look like a severe weather setup. Just wet.

cmm144

1pm- we’re hoping the heaviest rain stays south, near the TN/AL border.

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GFS (American) Model

7am – Looks pretty wet. It has the bulk of the rain further north than the Euro.

Saturday, April 27, 2013 at 7am

10am – Avert your eyes. This is a soaking.

1pm: It’s still raining.

3.   NOAA Weather Prediction Center’s Rainfall Outlook from Friday at 7p through Sunday at 7p.

On the one hand, yeah, this looks bad, especially when the Euro and GFS models are in general agreement.  On the other hand, it’s rare for any weather model to hold any exact solution for 6 days. This stuff is wildly variable. So, check back every day for updates, and maybe have a rain plan.

Today, my 62-year-old dad completed the MS 150 bike race. That’s 150 miles of pedaling from Houston to Austin, hills and all, in two days.  For some reason, he took the “challenge route,” which was 169 miles.

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No way a little (or alot) of rain can stop you after all the training you’ve done for your half or full marathon.

Well done, Dad. We are proud of you.

 

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