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Four Weather Models Think It’ll Rain Saturday

GFS and European wx models have been predicting rain Saturday morning. Today, there are other models now in range of the weekend. So, let’s dig in:

Country Music Marathon & Saturday Morning

Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts light rain all morning. Earlier this week, this model was calling for 4 times as much rain.

European: very light, off/on rain. A dramatic improvement from earlier model runs, which predicted a lot more rain.

North American Model (NAM) at 7am and 10am likes our light rain chances:

7:00 am, Saturday, April 27, 2013

10:00 am, Saturday, April 27, 2013

Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) at 7am and 10am get us wet, but most of the rain stays west:

7:00 am, Saturday, April 27, 2013

10:00 am, Saturday, April 27, 2013

BOTTOM LINE: the models are in decent agreement we will see off-and-on rain (mostly “on”) Saturday morning, but it won’t be a total washout. Expect around 0.25″ in the morning.

Saturday Afternoon Through the Rest of the Weekend

I won’t post all the images. Here’s a summary:

GFS: Off-and-on (mostly “on”) rain continues through the entire weekend.

European: Off-and-on (mostly “on” Saturday, “off” Sunday) continues through the weekend.

NAM:  Light rain through the weekend.

Weather Prediction Center:  keeps most of the rain south of us. We still get under 0.50″:

For Those Of You Who’ve Asked Me To Lie To You About Saturday’s Forecast

Earlier this week, the weather models were calling for a lot more rain. Now, they’re calling for a lot less. This is a clear trend guaranteed to continue. Therefore, by the time we get to Saturday, the models will call for sunshine.

For Those Of You Who Want The Truth

Rain is likely. So far, it looks like just a light rain, but it’s probably juuuust enough to rain out most outdoor sports activities (depending on the fields, of course).

It’s true — we can’t be absolutely sure. We remain 48+ hours away, and things could change. Tomorrow, even more weather models will be in range to give us a better sampling of what’s to come.  The closer we get to the event, the better the models perform.  But, if I had to bet on it, I’d bet on rain.  Sorry.

Another detailed forecast coming up tomorrow.

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