(Updated around 8pm Tuesday night)
Earlier today the models suggested the rain would arrive early Wednesday morning. Tonight’s model runs suggest the rain may hold off until mid morning.
For example, the WRF delivers us the heaviest rain around 1pm:
Our NWS forecasts 0.50″ total with this rainmaker. The Weather Prediction Center agrees:
We also can’t rule out a thunderstorm or two, but severe weather is unlikely courtesy of yet another morning arrival (when storms are typically less likely to be severe).
Wednesday temps will be stuck in the upper 50s tomorrow, but as the rain clears out Wednesday night and Thursday, the temps will rebound. Thursday (63) and Friday (70) look nice.
Sunday and Monday’s model runs called for a soaking rain Saturday morning. Today’s model runs are still calling for rain, but perhaps not as much. This is a move in the right direction.
Saturday morning at 7 a.m., from the
(1) American GFS Model:
(2) European Model, also at 7am Saturday:
Our NWS forecasts temps to be 52 at 7am, 59 at 9am, and 64 at 11am.
We may see a few thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.
The European model keeps the very light rain around until 7pm Saturday night, but never really sends in the heavy, soaking rain.
The American GFS model keeps the rain off and on the entire weekend, with the heaviest showers falling during the race.
Again, remember — models are often wrong this far in advance, and they’ll change from run to run. We will have a better handle on this Thursday night and Friday when more models come in range. Although today’s model runs are turning “drier” than yesterday, you should still plan to run in rain.