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Monday Update: Rain Early Wednesday. Wet Country Music Marathon.

We are in the peak of tornado season in Middle Tennessee. The good news is there is no widespread severe weather in the forecast.

Today

Our beautiful, “normal” Springtime weather continues.

Tuesday

Clouds arrive.

One model, the NAM (North American Model), delivers sprinkles around 1pm (below), but then not again until the pre-dawn hours Wednesday.

That model is an outlier. Most of the models deliver the rain very late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Looks wet, especially during morning hours. Here’s the GFS model for 7am Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center thinks there is a 5% chance (or less) of a severe thunderstorm with this rain.

NOAA estimates less than a half inch of rain Wednesday.

Thursday – Friday

Dry, with high temps 66 Thursday and 71 Friday.

Saturday

cmm

Yesterday’s rain concern remains. The models love our rain chances.

The latest GFS Model (The American one) paints a rain bullseye atop the race at 7am Saturday morning:

By 10am, the GFS shifts the rain east a bit, but it’s still raining.

The European Model offers no relief. At 7am:

A steady, soaking rain arrives around 10am:

At the NWS media conference call this morning, the NWS said there will be some dry hours this weekend. Right now, it does not appear any of those hours will be during the race.

Two things to keep in mind: (1) These models do not have a great record this far away.  (2) There are no current indications this will develop into a severe weather threat. Just rain.

We will update the race forecast again tomorrow.  For now, plan to run in the rain.

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