Because this is the eve of the Country Music Marathon, Franklin’s Main Street Festival, countless baseball, soccer, [insert preferred outdoor sport] games, let’s go way overboard with the weather models. We’ll ask the weather models about Tonight, Sat 7 a.m., Sat 1p.m., and Sat 7 p.m. Sunday’s forecast is mentioned at the end.
Summary: All the models rainout Saturday morning. Outdoor ball games are very unlikely. The Hi-Res NAM heroically attempts to dry out our Saturday afternoon & night. We expect around 1.00″ of rain beginning tonight through Saturday night. Look for more rain Sunday, but not nearly as much as we’ll get tomorrow. Thunderstorms are also possible both days, mostly in the afternoon.
Tonight – A Few Drive-By Showers
We may see a few light rain showers pass by this afternoon and tonight.
High-Res Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model at 7pm:
HRRR at midnight, followed by the RAP at midnight:
By 3am, more rain is on the way:
All rain will be moving east.
Saturday at 7 a.m. – The Rain Begins
European – overnight light rain, then this:
GFS – mostly dry overnight, then the rain comes:
Hi-Res NAM: Very few overnight showers, then heavier showers approach:
WRF: Light overnight rain, then just like the above models, heavier rain starts to move in:
SREF: Light overnight rain, but most of the Saturday morning rain stays north (this is a bit of an outlier):
Saturday 1 p.m. – It’s Probably Still Raining
European: Still raining:
GFS: Raining pretty hard:
Hi-Res NAM: An afternoon break in the rain!
WRF: Soaker continues:
SREF: Rain trying to move northeast of us. But, it’s still raining:
Saturday at 7 p.m. – About 1″ & Counting
European: Yep. Still raining:
GFS: *Sigh* still raining:
Hi-Res NAM: Fans of Franklin’s Main Street Festival & other assorted early evening activities need to cheer on this model. It clears us out!
WRF: Tries to join the Hi-Res NAM movement to and give us a break in the rain for Saturday night:
SREF: Still raining:
We won’t go crazy with the models for Sunday. Expect some rain, and maybe a few thunderstorms, but it looks much drier than Saturday. Easily the best day for Franklin’s Main Street Festival and other outdoor activities, as long as you bring an umbrella.
Categories: Forecast Blogs