Sn-w Next Week?
Courtesy of @Wallshark84:
The models were hinting about it yesterday.
Today’s model runs still have it.
That’s right. The models suggest a possible November sn-w. Do I think it’ll happen? Not really, no. But, then again, here’s the GFS run for Tuesday night:
Tonight – Light Rain – Overnight Low 44
A cold front is pushing light rain across Middle Tennessee. Expect around 0.38″ in Davidson/Williamson Counties.
Here’s the HRRR model’s prediction for Wednesday 4 PM – Thursday 2 AM:
Tonight – Overnight Low 50
Clouds are on the way. South winds will increase ahead of the approaching cold front.
Wednesday – Evening Rain – High 68
7a 52 . 10a 62 . 1p 67 . 4p 65 . 7p 58 . 10p 56
We could see gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tonight – Overnight Low 45
Clouds arriving, with passing light rain expected to miss us to the north.
Tuesday – Increasing Clouds Late – High 67
7a 46 . 10a 59 . 1p 66 . 4p 65 . 7p 60 . 10p 57
Mild winds will still be blowing out of the south, ahead of rain expected Wednesday late afternoon/night.
7-Day Forecast
Mon 39/66 . Tue 42/67 . Wed 50/71 . Thu 50/59 . Fri 35/58 . Sat 38/62 . Sun 40/62
(Dry . Rain (0%-30%) . Rain 30%+ . Severe . Snow)
Details
Monday – Warmer, Mostly Sunny – Morning Low 39, Afternoon High 66
Tonight – Sporadic Light Rain Showers (and maybe hail!) – Overnight Low 39
This disturbance in Missouri and Illinois surprised us today:
It’s so cold aloft, some of the raindrops froze and fell to ground as small hail. This will remain possible tonight as more isolated showers dive southeast into Middle Tennessee (HRRR model Saturday 4 PM – Midnight):
Tonight – Chance of Sprinkles – Overnight Low 46
After a spring-like week, fall’s back! Expect a crisp night for area high school football games, with only a very slight chance of an overnight passing sprinkle. Don’t worry. It won’t rain anything out.
The severe threat has ended in both Davidson & Williamson Counties. No tornado warnings!
Friday – Clearing Out, Great Alternate Trick-or-Treating Night – High 70
We’ll wake up to wet grass and 56. Expect 66 by lunch, then 70 by mid-afternoon. Low 60s by sundown, 54 by 10 p.m.
There are two storm lines to our west.
Last Line (above) will speed into western and Middle Tennessee. The two lines may even merge.
The result: “Severe storms look likely this evening in Middle Tennessee with possible tornadoes.”
The main blob of rain has moved east of us. It left a “tail” which should squirt us with rain around 7-ish. If you must Trick or Treat, Go Now!
However, our attention is focused on 9 p.m to 10 p.m. (or maybe later), when a new line of storms is predicted by the HRRR to arrive after forming in Arkansas/Missouri, crossing the MS River and trucking through West Tennessee.