Early Evening – Rain, Non-Severe Thunderstorms Likely
The HRRR Model (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model) has been been too-soon with the ETAs of this advancing rain system.
This loop shows the HRRR simulated radar between 2pm and and 11pm:
Early Evening – Rain, Non-Severe Thunderstorms Likely
The HRRR Model (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model) has been been too-soon with the ETAs of this advancing rain system.
This loop shows the HRRR simulated radar between 2pm and and 11pm:
We start with this from our NWS-Nashville:
Today – Rain, Non-Severe Thunderstorms Likely This Afternoon
Last night, I wrote that the Hi-Res NAM weather model thought it would rain this afternoon. Skeptical, I wrote that I’d wake up and see what the morning runs of the HRRR said, because the HRRR usually does a decent job. Well, here it is:
NOTE: If you’re looking for current conditions/radar, scroll all the way down.
Round 1 – Sunday Afternoon
Sunday, a warm front will move north into Middle Tennessee, bringing humid air with it. Humid air is an important ingredient for severe weather. It provides storm fuel.
Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops
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Local radar loop includes live severe weather warning

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)
Special Severe Weather Update
NWS-Nashville’s Afternoon Forecast Discussion led off with this:

As we wrote this morning — We want to balance the goal of raising awareness/encouraging preparedness with the risk of over-hyping this event. The details of what will happen remain fuzzy. There is significant potential, but answers to questions about ETAs, local impacts, and types of storm modes (tornadoes, hail, high winds, flash flooding) do not exist. This is a situation where the storms which form Sunday will impact what will happen Monday. What we see Monday will impact what happens Tuesday.
Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops
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Local radar loop includes live severe weather warning

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)
Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops
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Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)
Tonight – Cool & Clear – 49at 10 PM
Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops
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Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

(Editor’s Note: I suppose).
Tonight – Cool & Clear – 57 at 10 PM
Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops
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Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)
Tonight – Showers, Few Thunderstorms – 62 at 10 PM
Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop
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Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)
Monday – Evening Rain, Few Thunderstorms – Wake Up 54, High 78