A Disturbing Forecast

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Today –  Chance for Showers & Thunderstorms, Mostly Cloudy  – High 87

A series of disturbances will pull through today into Sunday moving  from the South to North… Giving us a chance for rain. The National Weather Service believes that these showers and thunderstorms will not become organized, but some isolated areas could experience very heavy downpours. The NWS also believes that the bulk of the rain will begin here in Nashville after 1 PM.

The HRRR has the showers beginning in Nashville around 12 PM. This simulated radar loop runs from 11 AM to 5 PM:

These scattered showers will taper off as we approach sunset; thereafter, we will hold onto a lessened chance for showers and thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center is not forecasting any severe weather for Nashville.

Saturday– Cloudy, Chance of Thunderstorms – Wake Up 70, High 85

Saturday’s weather set up is much like Friday’s… Another disturbance will roll through giving us a chance for showers and thunderstorms all day. Once again the bulk of the rain will fall during the peak heating of the day (1 PM – 5 PM).

This Is what the NAM is showing for its simulated radar at 1 PM:

18z NAM

These showers and storms are expected to be scattered and unorganized, but some places could see heavy downpours from isolated thunderstorms.

As we move into the overnight hours, the likelihood of a thunderstorm will move from “chance” to “slight”.

The SPC does not believe there will be any severe weather.

Sunday– Partly Sunny, Chance of Thunderstorms – Wake Up 70, High 91

The final disturbance will be making its way through Middle Tennessee during the day on Sunday. This will give us a chance for rain most of the day. Once again, the activity will flair up around noon due to day time heating.

The NAM shows rain all day and then intensifies around 1 PM.

18z NAM Sun

These showers will be scattered and unorganized.

As we approach sunset our rain chances will decrease until overnight we shed any chance for rain. Instead, we will just be mostly cloudy.

Official Extended NWS Forecast: