So, y’all, this is terribly familiar:
Catastrophic #flooding is impacting much of South Carolina today; up to 25" of rain has fallen since 10/1! #SCFlood pic.twitter.com/Zqd1LwtxEW
— NWS Nashville (@NWSNashville) October 4, 2015
Current Radar
The men and women at NWS-Nashville are forecasting professionals with hundreds of years of experience. Here’s how NWS-Nashville started off the morning forecast discussion:
The upper level low that made it rain for three days has finally moved east over southern Georgia.
Refresh your browser to update the radar, above. As you can see, rain is coming Crazy Ivan style, east to west.
The rain reason is the upper level low, which has been sitting to our S/SE since Thursday:
See above. It appears the heavier/steadier rain will turn to lighter/off-and-on rain tonight.
The HRRR model shows decreasing showers tonight and overnight:
The last frame of the HRRR (above) shows more rain coming from E Tennessee at 6 AM. If that trend continues (I’ll update the HRRR model on Twitter @NashSevereWx later tonight), it’ll completely wash away all Saturday outdoor activities.
Current Radar
The current weathermaker is not Hurricane Joaquin. Our weather is due to an upper level low that has set up camp in the southeast, spinning counterclockwise.
Another dreary day is in store for us. Expect an overcast sky with a high temperature only reaching 64°.
Current Radar
Umbrella/rain jacket a good idea for evening plans. Outdoor events look shaky.
Elsewhere in the realm of our weather…it will continue to be cloudy this evening. And cooler. AND drier (in terms of humidity).
Because an area of low pressure way up in the air will become a “closed low.” That means dreary days ahead.
Thursday night, the closed low emerges! Here’s the GFS model:
Current Radar
Our temperature will climb to 72° this afternoon under a cloudy sky. Dew points will continue to stay in the muggy 60s throughout the day.
Some isolated showers will be passing through later this afternoon.
Current Radar
‘Humid & cloudy & kinda warm, but kinda cool’ will be the scenario as we head into the evening.
Models keep just a few showers around this evening:
Judging by current radar, I’d say rain chances are pretty low.
Current Radar
If you looped the radar at 304 PM, you saw one batch of showers move NE, the other NW, because why not.
As Meagan wrote this morning, rain is coming tonight. Moisture from an upper low and a surface low in the Gulf is surging north.
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