It’s hot today but not sure it’s a “scorcher.”
We wrote “Sweaty Not Wetty” last night only to wake up this morning to HRRR model runs popping off isolated late afternoon/early evening downpours and thunderstorms:
Category: Forecast Blogs (Legacy)
Sweaty Not Wetty Labor Day; Watching Tropical Cyclone Seven
Labor Day
The Storm Prediction Center does not think we will see Labor Day thunderstorms:
The Weather Prediction Center forecasts for us no Labor Day rain:
NWS-Nashville agrees, figuring only a 10% probability of precipitation (black arrow) and betting no rain will actually hit the pavement (red arrow):
Pop-Up Rain Possible Today; Hot, Humid, Quiet Labor Day; Remnants Storm in Gulf of Mexico May Bring Us Rain Next Weekend
Slim Rain Chances in the Afternoon; Summertime Pattern Continues; Pretty Good Labor Day
Happy First Day of September!
Meteorological Fall
If you follow the meteorology community on social media, you may see the term “Meteorological Fall” thrown around today. This refers to the beginning of what are considered the “fall months” of September, October, November. Not be confused with the fall season which begins on September 22! Fall temps are still out of reach.
Summer Time Pattern Persists for the Holiday Weekend
Clouds Keeping Temps Lower Today/Tomorrow; Next Week is Hot & Humid
Clouds will be pretty widespread today, keeping high temps in the upper 80s. Dewpoints are oppressive, in the low 70s, a normal for late-August.
Morning showers over Nashville left our atmosphere with plenty of moisture and instability that could kick off afternoon showers and storms. Any storms that go up aren’t expected to reach severe levels.
Higher Rain Chances Today, Continuing Through the End of the Week
The sweat machine rolls on today… expecting highs in the low 90s today with dew points in the 70s (oppressive range).
The upper ridge (high pressure) that has brought us the hot and humid weather the past several days will begin shifting eastward as weak cold front moves southward into the Tennessee Valley, opening the door for rain.
Rain Chances Increase Wednesday. Rain Most Likely Thursday.
High temps will climb into the low/mid 90°s today. Dewpoints continue to stay within the low 70°s making temps feel closer to 100°.
We could see a popcorn shower/storm or two over Nashville today. The HRRR model shows storms going up during the hottest time of the day. You could see a quick downpour and hear a few rumbles of thunder, but that’s pretty unlikely. Showers should be scattered far and wide.
Hot & Humid All Week; Rain Chances Increase Wednesday
Hot & Humid; Rain Chances Increase Wednesday
This morning, the HRRR model predicted this afternoon’s showers and thunderstorm, which poked through high pressure like a hernia through a tummy.
If you were north of the 24/65 split, near Skyline and Madison and Goodlettsville, you could not ignore it. It tossed lightning and prompted NWS-Nashville to issue an Areal Flood Advisory and a Significant Weather Advisory.