All these upper 60s-low 70s have us feeling:
An upper level low will pass through the midwest Tuesday. This should spark some off and on rain Tuesday, maybe into Wednesday.
But the data isn’t giving any clues to timing. It’s possible all the rain misses your backyard.
We will likely see two round of rain/storms Wednesday.
The first round will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
This first round will race ahead of the warm front trailing behind it, so while gusty winds are possible, tornadoes are not expected to accompany this activity.
Lunchtime rain is moving out. Should be clearing this afternoon.
This will all depend on two things: morning rain and where a high pressure is:
The Storm Prediction Center has put Nashville and Will Co under a 5% chance of seeing a severe storm within 25 miles of a point. The southwestern half of Williamson County is under a 15% probability, but I would not pay too much attention to that — the risk isn’t 10% higher in Franklin vs Brentwood, or the rest of our area.
Substantial wind shear will be in place as a line of storms approaches Monday morning. ETA late morning/lunch. But instability should be near zero, reducing if not eliminating most/all severe storm concerns. Winds may still be strong (40 MPH or so) — and we cannot totally rule out a severe wind event — but there is no reason for a hail or tornado concern Monday.
