Light rain will arrive while we sleep, and continue through the morning commute. The HRRR model thinks this rain will last through mid-morning:
Other models, particularly the NAM3 model, think the rain could linger off and on into Monday afternoon.
But first, let’s talk today thru Tuesday.
Sun this morning will turn into clouds later today and tonight. The HRRR model shows light rain approaching by midnight.
Expect light rain while we sleep tonight.
Southerly winds and moisture return will “restart” on Sunday night into Monday morning — this will lead to climbing temperatures and increased chances for rain.
It appears the Monday morning commute could be wet. Scattered showers into Tuesday are a good bet, with a couple storms possible but not overly likely. Tuesday, the mercury will approach 70º!
Wednesday is a day when instability will be the greatest, and this could aid in decent thunderstorm development. A preliminary look at CAPE (storm food) forecasts from the GFS show a respectable amount of unstable air on Wednesday at lunchtime:
In lieu of this, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a 15% risk for severe weather already for Wednesday:
SPC Discussion:
...lower MS Valley and TN Valley on Wednesday... Strong belt of mid-level flow coupled with increasing low-level moisture will probably support marginal-moderate buoyancy with a strong shear profile. The timing of a cold front appears to converge on Wednesday as it sweeps through the area. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast, some of which could be severe.
With a max high temperature of 81° this afternoon, we have officially broken the long standing record for the day from 1890.
81° the official high so far today. The previous record was 77° set back in 1890.
We cannot emphasize enough how unusually warm these last several days have been. The trend will continue through Friday before, finally, a cold front sweeps away the unseasonably hot air and replaces it with air ~20 to 30º cooler.
Using the NWS graphical forecast, look at the temperature trend for the next several days:
In 24 hours, a 33º difference in high temperature forecasts…wow.
As mentioned, a cold front will send us back to more winter-like temperatures. In order to get to that point, however, we will have to make it through a chance for rain and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. In addition, winds could gust as high as 30 mph during the day on Friday.
The latest thinking from NWS Nashville:
The actual fropa (frontal passage) will occur Friday evening with showers and tstms accompanying the front. With high temps reaching 80 degrees on Friday, there will be plenty of lower level instability. Furthermore, as some upper level energy begins to catch up with the boundary, organized linear omega fields will engage with favorable shear levels. Thus, a round of strong to svr tstms looks possible, mainly for areas east of I-65, during the evening. Damaging winds looks to be the primary threat.
A Look At Our Temperatures to End the Work Week
With highs through Friday expected to be in the 70s, we do have the possibility of breaking a record to finish the week.
The forecast high for Friday is currently 77°. The standing record on February 22nd all the way from 1890 is 77°. So, with our forecast high being so close to the current record, I’d keep an eye on Friday
We expect the light rain to continue on/off through the evening. By midnight, rain will be winding down and moving east of us.
Wednesday and Thursday will remain warm, despite a good bit of cloud cover. Tonight’s rain should end during the AM hours of Wednesday. A slight chance of showers exists for Thursday, but nothing too significant that would warrant changing your plans. Check out the highs for these two days, both well into the 70s:
Potentially Record High Temperatures This Week
Not only will our high temps stay in the 70s throughout the week, we do have a couple days that we could tango with the current record.
Today, we came close to the record of 78° which occurred in 2014, but we ended up a degree short. So no new record for today.
All these temps will be close to record highs, running 15° to 20° above the average temp for late February.
Let’s unpack those rain chances from the crap-app posted above.
Models remain inconsistent in predicting this event. One model (the GFS) thinks most of the rain will go south of us. The other model (the Euro) also has most of the rain south of us, but thinks we will get some rain during the day. The NAM3 model is getting into range (it’s posted below, looking at the wee hours of Tuesday morning through lunch), and it too has very little/no rain for us. It’ll be a cloudy day for sure, but for now (check back on this) my gut says only a small amount of rain Tuesday.
Showers have continued to move off to the east, with some clearing beginning to move in. Rest of the evening looks to be tranquil with clouds continuing to move out.
Southerly flow will continue pumping in warm air on Sunday. Most areas will soar above 70° during the afternoon! Any reason to get outside will be worth it.
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