Growing Concerns About Storms Wednesday
But first, let’s talk today thru Tuesday.
Sun this morning will turn into clouds later today and tonight. The HRRR model shows light rain approaching by midnight.
Expect light rain while we sleep tonight.
In the morning: steady rain will continue, as illustrated below by the NAM3 model.
Monday afternoon, we may even see another passing shower or two after the main rain blob goes east:
This is probably enough rain to cause rain-out worries for Monday night practice.
More Rain Tuesday as a Powerful Storm System Nears Closer
Before the big storm event Wednesday, “impulses” will continue to bring rain Tuesday, with a few non-severe thunderstorms mixed in. These will more “hit and miss” than the more focused/organized showers we will see Monday, so expect rain off and on all day Tuesday, with totals potentially varying quite a lot between neighborhoods.
Our showers will move in from the southwest; the latest thinking is the 1″+ rain will be northwest of us along the purply/pink line, as illustrated below:
NWS-Nashville expects rain chances to increase Tuesday night. Again, we think outdoor practices are at risk of raining out Tuesday.
Severe weather is expected to be ongoing west of us on Tuesday:
Wednesday: We Are Concerned About Severe Weather
We’re included in the Storm Prediction Center’s “Day 4” (it’s “day 4” because Sunday 1, Monday 2, Tuesday 3, Wednesday 4) severe weather outlook. This means some of the best severe weather forecasters in the world think there is a 30% probability we will see severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of us.
Prior severe weather events of the past several months were “low end,” meaning, not that worrisome. This threat currently appears larger than that; however, right now, we are not completely freaking out because in weather terms, it’s still kinda far away, there’s still some uncertainty in the models about how bad this could be, and this event is not yet in range of the regional/higher resolution models.
That said, here’s what we think will happen:
1—This looks mostly like a damaging wind event.
Here’s what the Storm Prediction Center wrote: “A potentially widespread damaging-wind event is possible on Wednesday (Day 4) from portions of the lower MS Valley northeastward into the TN and OH Valleys, central and southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic states. A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the MS Valley and towards the Appalachians by early Thursday while a cold front sweeps eastward. An appreciably moist/unstable warm sector and very strong southwesterly flow fields aloft will conditionally support an extensive squall line potentially capable of swaths of damaging winds.”
If the winds at the surface were expected to be coming from the southeast, then we’d have bigger tornado concerns; however, instead of southeast surface winds, looks like they’ll be blowing from the southwest, which suggests more of a squall line packing very strong winds. (No one is ruling out a tornado from this event, but keep in mind we are speaking generally about this event because it’s too far away to pin down specifics).
The higher resolution regional models aren’t in range, which keeps us from having a better handle on timing. Those models should start to come into range later tonight, and certainly into Monday. For now, looks to me like the squall line will arrive after the morning rush hour but before the evening rush hour. Don’t hold me to that.
We want to raise awareness, not alarm. We’re entering our severe weather season; Thursday will be the 5 year anniversary of the supercell that dropped a tornado just east of Davidson County — the one that lifted then hailed like crazy all the way down I-40.
Consult multiple reliable sources for your weather information.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs