Windy and Warm This Afternoon
With a max high temperature of 81° this afternoon, we have officially broken the long standing record for the day from 1890.
81° the official high so far today. The previous record was 77° set back in 1890.
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) February 24, 2017
For the remainder of the afternoon, clouds will continue to move in ahead of tonight’s severe weather potential. Winds have been fairly gusty all day and will die down just a bit as we head into the evening hours.
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tonight
Generally speaking, our timeline looks to be between 7 PM and 10 PM for the main line of showers.
Latest run of the HRRR brings the main line of showers around the 9 to 10 PM mark.
As the HRRR displays, we could get a few showers and thunderstorms to develop out ahead of the main line during the early evening hours. All showers and thunderstorms will need to be monitored very closely tonight.
Severe Weather Set-Up
The majority of the bad stuff is expected to stay well to our north, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see strong to severe thunderstorms here tonight.
When looking at some of the ingredients we need for severe weather, we will have some key ingredients present tonight.
For example, our Convective Available Potential Energy (or CAPE) values are low, but not zero either.
Another point to add is that we will have lots of daytime heating tonight (I mean highs will reach the 80s with dew points in the mid 50s). We will also have enough shear (another one of our key ingredients) present that we need to keep an eye on these storms tonight.
Most of the ingredients appear to be ahead of the main line of showers, which is good news for the main line. However, if we get some storms to fire ahead of the main line, we could very easily see some strong to severe thunderstorms develop with them.
What to Expect
Right now, the storm prediction center has most of Davidson and Williamson Counties included in a “Marginal Risk” (think 1 on a 0-5 scale) for severe weather. The very northeastern corner of Davidson County appears to be included in a “Slight Risk” (think 2 on a 0-5 scale) for severe weather.
The main concerns for tonight are damaging winds and hail, but an isolated tornado can not be ruled out at this point.
Here is what our local NWS had to say about tonight’s severe weather in a Hazardous Weather Outlook:
- This appears to be a low-end event, BUT needs to be monitored very closely
- Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns
- An isolated tornado or localized flooding can not be ruled out
As always, be sure to stick with us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for the most up-to-date information. If you don’t already, be sure to follow our local NWS office and local meteorologists as well. The more resources you have, the better off you’ll be.
This Weekend and Beyond
Hope you haven’t put away those winter clothes quite yet, this weekend temps will finally cool off and be much more seasonal. We will even see temperatures drop below the freezing mark on Saturday Night. While it may be cold, at least it will be sunny out over the weekend.
By Monday, warmer temps and more shower chances will move back into the forecast.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs