A word of advice from NWS Nashville this morning:
Just a side item, before we get into the meat of things–you might want to strongly consider mowing your yard over the next couple of days since, after that, things will start to trend wetter and wetter with each passing day, until we finally start to dry back out early next week.
More rain, with maybe a little lightning, is on the way tonight.
Flash flooding (a flood that happens almost suddenly, due to heavy rain and run off) is tonight’s primary weather concern.
A lot of rain has fallen. The below map is a radar estimate as of 6 PM. The purple indicates radar estimates of 1.5″ to 2″ or more, and are especially vulnerable to flash flooding tonight/overnight.
This afternoon’s storms produced a few downed trees and limbs, and some localized flooding. Those storms have departed south and east down I-24.
From around 4 PM to 6 PM, the rain should switch “off.” The HRRR model predicts more rain beginning around (maybe before?) 7 PM, and continuing for at least a few more hours.
The Storm Prediction Center gives all of us a “2 out of 5”, or Slight Risk, for severe weather on Sunday.
What: Showers and storms, some strong/severe. Main concerns are damaging winds, but hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Heading out the Sounds game tonight? Other than wiping off your seat, we will remain dry!
GFS Model Through Tuesday AM
A continued string of hot and humid days is expected into the weekend, so don’t forget to throw in those pesky afternoon storm chances each day! Sunday looks to be oppressive humidity/heat-wise, and is also when our much greater chance for more widespread rain and thunderstorms will return. A cold front will clear through the area on Monday bringing drier and a *little* cooler air (89ºF for next Tuesday afternoon instead of the recent low to mid 90s).
Another batch of early morning sunshine is expected tomorrow with highs reaching into the 90s. By the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms could develop with some becoming severe.
Once we reach the afternoon hours, it will become fair game for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Models are a bit inconsistent when it comes to timing for tomorrow, hence the large time frame.
A couple more pop-up showers/storms are possible this evening but should be gone shortly after sunset. If you get underneath one of these, the temperature will likely drop about 5-10 degrees.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Davidson/Williamson counties under a “Marginal Risk” for severe weather on Thursday. Marginal hail and wind gusts are the main threats with any storms that get going. There will likely be better coverage of rain, so the umbrella would be more useful Thursday than with these other pop-up PM storms.
