The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has given us a Slight Risk for Sunday afternoon, but we don’t expect widespread severe weather.

Sunday

As mentioned above, spc put us in a slight risk for Sunday. The main concerns are flooding, and a non-zero chance of brief Tornados, damaging wind, and small hail. This isn’t some widespread severe weather event, but it has us interested enough to write a special blog to discuss it. So let’s dig in.

10z HRRR Reflectivity Loop

Above, the HRRR model is running through Sunday night. A storm complex riding a cool front comes our way Sunday afternoon. Exact timing is still a little unsteady, but we think it will be Sunday evening for the “main event”.

We know it will bring us lots of rain.

The above graphic is showing a forecasted amount of multiple inches, and that has triggered a flood watch through Monday morning. Creeks, rivers, drainage ditches will remain full and may exceed flood guidance, triggering flood warnings tomorrow night. An isolated 4″ of rain for some us is not out of the question. Flash flooding will be of most concern in areas that receive a lot of rain yesterday. Creek and river levels can be checked here… NashSevereWX Flood Resources

A flood advisory will like remain in effect through 6pm Wednesday.

Severe Threat

It’s low. But it’s not zero and the greater threat exists if there isn’t a cloud deck in place tomorrow afternoon. The setup Sunday is going to be influenced by storm fuel (heat + instability).

Here’s what the NWS said in their Saturday afternoon AFD…

Afternoon high temps on Sunday expected to sore into mid 70s south with a good amount of instability and favorable lapses rates for strong to severe convection development, especially if rainfall does not move into this portion of mid state region until late afternoon hours allowing for increased atmospheric instability due to enhanced diurnal heating influences. read more

High temps today and tomorrow could exceed 85º. Bring on the heat complainers.

A small chance for rain showers north of us. We don’t think it will sink south down here.

Sunday hail & wind timing and probabilities.

Sunday starts like today. read more

Lots of sun today. We’ve hit 73° in my back yard and 75° at BNA. These clear skies and warm temps continue. Tomorrow, the 80’s return.

Beyond Saturday

The blue skies and sun continue through Sunday morning. Clouds begin moving in around lunch and by sundown Sunday night begins our chance for rain and storms. read more

Today we’ll see waves or rain, and possibly some strong to severe storms. read more

Today will be around 72º with plenty of mid-day sun.

Storms and Rain on Saturday and Sunday?

Low pressure moves from west to east Saturday. Showers may start as early as midnight tonight, and will get wider in coverage through the morning. Strongest winds will be around mid-day and stick around through Sunday. read more

Today

As we discussed yesterday, it will be cooler today but with plenty of sunshine streaking through this afternoon. High of 62º.

Unsolicited housekeeping advice: Do it tomorrow. Today is a day for playing outside. read more

Tonight’s severe weather threat is over. We really dodged a bullet with only a couple severe thunderstorm warnings.

As it passes, and we all head to bed, we’ll lose the threat of severe weather. read more

Clear and Dry (mostly)

Sunny skies for days as high pressure abounds today and the majority of this week.. High temperatures during the day will stay in the low to mid 50’s, lows around freezing. Except for a chance for showers overnight on Tuesday, we’ll be dry. read more

Rest of Saturday

Today began with a good misting of rain for many of us.

That rain has pulled out and taken some of the cloud cover with it, but it won’t last long.

Here is a wide angle view of the radar at 12:35pm showing more light showers similar to this morning on our SW doorstep.

This won’t ruin any plans, but it will make the roads wet again, and usher in some cooler temps while it’s overhead. Bring a rain jacket to the honkey tonks tonight.

Sunday Rain/Storm Chances

An upper low will deepen as it swings off the Rockies and through the central part of the country. Southerly surface flow will pick up ahead of this system encouraging temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 60s again on Sunday. PWATS are still running very high for the time of the year. Values of 1.5 inches or higher could be possible through the early morning hours on Sunday to Sunday night. Models have shifted the axis of heaviest precip to the west, over portions of west Tennessee and western Kentucky. However, this axis could easily wobble east or west over the next 24 hours as we see how the system evolves. For now, expect anywhere from 1 to 2 and a half inches of rain in Middle Tennessee. read more

Today

Today’s skies are forecasted to clear, with mild temps and more sunshine. I wouldn’t be surprised if we exceed our forecasted high of 51º if these clouds give way.

Overnight low is down to 36º as clouds move back in overnight and trap the heat like a fluffy comforter.

Saturday

Saturday’s temps will be may a few degrees warmer, up to 54º. However, the could that moved in overnight will stick around. Call it mostly cloudy by afternoon. These clouds set the stage for our next chance of rain.

Rain? Model Roulette

Sometime the best models we can use to predict rain have disagreements. Actually, it’s more than sometimes. It’s something we struggle with when doing blogs like this, and something the National Weather Service is dealing with this disagreement today.

Most of the current iterations are giving southern and southeastern Middle TN some showers by Sunday. The problem is, the GFS is dry, the Euro is kinda wet and the NAM is giving all of the mid-state a deluge. read more