We have some fall weather on tap until the next disturbance moves NE into our area Thursday late. Temps in the mid 50s both today and tomorrow. Really great days for outdoor activities. But it doesn’t last…
I’m writing this from my back deck and I can already tell it is going to be a beautiful weekend. The sun will be out and the temps will be chilly enough to remind you that it’s fall. Today will be breezy, tomorrow will not. Get outside and do something fun!
Most of us saw some snow accumulations last night. Here are the highlights.
Official snow totals at BNA was 0.4″. The official forecast was between nothing and 0.5″, so not bad!
We continue to see frigid temps today. We’ve not made it above 28º at the time of writing this and after the sun goes down we’ll quickly drop back down below 25º. From there temps will nose dive into the teens.
We’re seeing some great weather today as blue skies abound. We’ll get to 92º without a cloud in the sky. It’s possibly the last 90º day as these blue skies yield to rain when a cold front approaches.
At the time of writing this the temperature is 89º, but it sure doesn’t feel like with a 52º dew point. A steady 10mph breeze doesn’t hurt anything either. All in all, if you’re tailgating, back yard tailgating, or outside for Pilgrimage, things are pretty comfortable. That being said, take some sunscreen.
Almost exactly like today, but with a little more humidity. Still not too shabby.
Well, the word “thunderstorm” comes back into our vocabulary on Monday, but nothing widespread is expected. It would be great if we saw broad coverage of soaking rain and temps in the low 80’s, but that’s not happening.
Why are things so hot and dry???
Nashville normally averages 81º for a high in September and around 3.5″ of rain. We’ve seen temps consistently in the 90s and like .01″ of rain at BNA. The cause is continuous waves of high pressure moving from West to East across the country. Strong enough high pressure to keep rain makers in the south from moving into our area. Unusual? Somewhat. Annoying? For sure.
Although there is a chance for rain on Monday, it is slight. And… it will be a while until we have another chance.
Here is the GFS model’s prediction for 6hr rain totals for the next 240 or so hours.
So… we’ll see! Hopefully this model is wrong (decent chance) and we get some soaking rain soon.
Check back soon!
Hot and sunny, with a high of 94º. Heat index values will rise to 98º.
We’ll barely see a cloud in the sky by the afternoon.
SUNDAY
It’s going to be a great day weather wise. The dew point and temperature are both lower this morning than they were yesterday.
Temperature today will be 95º at 3pm, but a north breeze will keep us sane. Tomorrow, the insanity begins…
Monday’s heat index will be 102º. Tuesday’s heat index will be 106º. Wednesday’s heat index will be 96º.
The temperatures will be the same as Sunday, but with higher dew points, it will feel so much hotter. Here’s a breakdown on how heat index works.
So we’ll have Heat Advisory worthy heat this week. But, There’s a complication in all of this…
A “cold front” from the mid-west will be coming down into our area Tuesday. When “colder” air meets the hot and swampy air that will be firmly in place, we will see isolated showers and thunderstorms.
This morning’s area forecast discussion from the national weather service says the following.
The latest SPC Day 3 Outlook has
not been issued yet but would not be surprised to see a marginal
or slight risk added for parts of our area on Tuesday.
More heat!
If you’re having a pool party for your birthday, you picked a pretty good one. Happy Birthday!
The temps will hover around 93 with a heat index of 101º. But, keep an eye on the radar this afternoon…there is also a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. If thunder roars, go indoors!
The National Weather Service in Nashville sum things up in a special weather statement issued early this morning.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS MID STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 99 TO 104 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
We expect a dry morning. As you’re making the final outfit decisions, know that rain is in the conversation, and the best option is to have a couple options. The rain we had yesterday evening and overnight is gone, but it has left the ground quite soft. After thousands of people and hundreds of vehicles make their way around the infield, it’s going to get muddy. That being said, you won’t need rain jackets as you set up your tailgate spot or unpack linens in your box. We expect a high of 74º at 4pm.
Opening ceremonies are at Noon and the first race is scheduled for 1pm. This is where the weather picture starts to head downhill. The HRRR (our most accurate short term weather model) thinks that spotty showers could pop up starting in the early afternoon. This is by no means guaranteed. Have a rain jacket in the car or in your bag. If you weren’t already wearing boots to combat muddy ground, make sure you know where they are by the first or second race. Remember what I said above: Preparedness. However, If it does rain many people might not really care. It is steeplechase after all.
Have you been to steeplechase in a driving rain and wind? I have, and it’s quite a show. Nothing is certain but models predict the radar will “color in” around 2pm-3pm. See the HRRR below. The “future radar” gif begins at 1pm and runs until 7 pm. Timestamps are in the upper right and you’ll need to adjust for central time.
If the above happens, and you’re far away from your Tahoe (Range Rover if you’re in a box), you will be pretty miserable, regardless of your preparedness.
Stay weather aware today. Have fun! Don’t let the threat of rain in mid-afternoon spoil a good time. Make sure you’ve got something to keep you dry, and a designated driver.
Follow us on twitter for up to the minute updates on the threat of rain, and cheers to steeplechase!
Scattered showers dominate the area throughout the day, some being heavy at times. Believe it or not our high temp was 61º and midnight. By sunrise we had already fallen to a temp of 51º and we’re going to keep getting cooler all day.
Rain will hang around most of the day as well. It will be light, mostly. Here is a loop of the HRRR through midnight.
Here’s something you weren’t expecting… Overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning we have the chance to see a few flakes fly around. Yes… Snowflakes. I don’t believe it either, but there’s some science to support it.
If we do see snow in the wee hours of Saturday morning it won’t be long lived. These blue pixels depict snow, but honestly. It’s going to melt before you even see it in most cases. If it happens at all it would be because temps aloft will be briefly cold enough. It may fall as snow or a wintry mix, but then melt on contact, with no meaningful impacts expected. Below is the NAM-WRF model through 2pm.
After our wet and cold morning,
skies will clear and temps will warm
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