I’m writing this from my back deck and I can already tell it is going to be a beautiful weekend. The sun will be out and the temps will be chilly enough to remind you that it’s fall. Today will be breezy, tomorrow will not. Get outside and do something fun!
Author: Will
It snowed! Near Record Cold Temps Wednesday Morning, then we Warm Up.
Most of us saw some snow accumulations last night. Here are the highlights.
Official snow totals at BNA was 0.4″. The official forecast was between nothing and 0.5″, so not bad!
We continue to see frigid temps today. We’ve not made it above 28º at the time of writing this and after the sun goes down we’ll quickly drop back down below 25º. From there temps will nose dive into the teens.
Warm and Beautiful Weather, Then Rain (gasp).
Today
At the time of writing this the temperature is 89º, but it sure doesn’t feel like with a 52º dew point. A steady 10mph breeze doesn’t hurt anything either. All in all, if you’re tailgating, back yard tailgating, or outside for Pilgrimage, things are pretty comfortable. That being said, take some sunscreen.
Sunday
Almost exactly like today, but with a little more humidity. Still not too shabby.
Rain??? Cooler Temps???
Well, the word “thunderstorm” comes back into our vocabulary on Monday, but nothing widespread is expected. It would be great if we saw broad coverage of soaking rain and temps in the low 80’s, but that’s not happening.
Why are things so hot and dry???
Nashville normally averages 81º for a high in September and around 3.5″ of rain. We’ve seen temps consistently in the 90s and like .01″ of rain at BNA. The cause is continuous waves of high pressure moving from West to East across the country. Strong enough high pressure to keep rain makers in the south from moving into our area. Unusual? Somewhat. Annoying? For sure.
Although there is a chance for rain on Monday, it is slight. And… it will be a while until we have another chance.
Here is the GFS model’s prediction for 6hr rain totals for the next 240 or so hours.
So… we’ll see! Hopefully this model is wrong (decent chance) and we get some soaking rain soon.
Check back soon!
HOT WEEKEND AND EARLY WORK WEEK, CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN WEDS PM
Feelin’ Hot Hot Hot
TODAY
It’s going to be a great day weather wise. The dew point and temperature are both lower this morning than they were yesterday.
Temperature today will be 95º at 3pm, but a north breeze will keep us sane. Tomorrow, the insanity begins…
This Week
Monday’s heat index will be 102º. Tuesday’s heat index will be 106º. Wednesday’s heat index will be 96º.
The temperatures will be the same as Sunday, but with higher dew points, it will feel so much hotter. Here’s a breakdown on how heat index works.
So we’ll have Heat Advisory worthy heat this week. But, There’s a complication in all of this…
STORMS
A “cold front” from the mid-west will be coming down into our area Tuesday. When “colder” air meets the hot and swampy air that will be firmly in place, we will see isolated showers and thunderstorms.
This morning’s area forecast discussion from the national weather service says the following.
The latest SPC Day 3 Outlook has
not been issued yet but would not be surprised to see a marginal
or slight risk added for parts of our area on Tuesday.
Very Hot With A Chance Of Storms
Today
More heat!
If you’re having a pool party for your birthday, you picked a pretty good one. Happy Birthday!
The temps will hover around 93 with a heat index of 101º. But, keep an eye on the radar this afternoon…there is also a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. If thunder roars, go indoors!
The National Weather Service in Nashville sum things up in a special weather statement issued early this morning.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS MID STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 99 TO 104 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
Special Event Forecast - Iroquois Steeplechase Edition
Before the first race…
We expect a dry morning. As you’re making the final outfit decisions, know that rain is in the conversation, and the best option is to have a couple options. The rain we had yesterday evening and overnight is gone, but it has left the ground quite soft. After thousands of people and hundreds of vehicles make their way around the infield, it’s going to get muddy. That being said, you won’t need rain jackets as you set up your tailgate spot or unpack linens in your box. We expect a high of 74º at 4pm.
Post time
Opening ceremonies are at Noon and the first race is scheduled for 1pm. This is where the weather picture starts to head downhill. The HRRR (our most accurate short term weather model) thinks that spotty showers could pop up starting in the early afternoon. This is by no means guaranteed. Have a rain jacket in the car or in your bag. If you weren’t already wearing boots to combat muddy ground, make sure you know where they are by the first or second race. Remember what I said above: Preparedness. However, If it does rain many people might not really care. It is steeplechase after all.
Mid-Afternoon
Have you been to steeplechase in a driving rain and wind? I have, and it’s quite a show. Nothing is certain but models predict the radar will “color in” around 2pm-3pm. See the HRRR below. The “future radar” gif begins at 1pm and runs until 7 pm. Timestamps are in the upper right and you’ll need to adjust for central time.
If the above happens, and you’re far away from your Tahoe (Range Rover if you’re in a box), you will be pretty miserable, regardless of your preparedness.
Conclusion
Stay weather aware today. Have fun! Don’t let the threat of rain in mid-afternoon spoil a good time. Make sure you’ve got something to keep you dry, and a designated driver.
Follow us on twitter for up to the minute updates on the threat of rain, and cheers to steeplechase!
Drizzle and Cold Today, Clearing and Warming Tomorrow.
This afternoon and tonight
Scattered showers dominate the area throughout the day, some being heavy at times. Believe it or not our high temp was 61º and midnight. By sunrise we had already fallen to a temp of 51º and we’re going to keep getting cooler all day.
Rain will hang around most of the day as well. It will be light, mostly. Here is a loop of the HRRR through midnight.
Here’s something you weren’t expecting… Overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning we have the chance to see a few flakes fly around. Yes… Snowflakes. I don’t believe it either, but there’s some science to support it.
Saturday
If we do see snow in the wee hours of Saturday morning it won’t be long lived. These blue pixels depict snow, but honestly. It’s going to melt before you even see it in most cases. If it happens at all it would be because temps aloft will be briefly cold enough. It may fall as snow or a wintry mix, but then melt on contact, with no meaningful impacts expected. Below is the NAM-WRF model through 2pm.
After our wet and cold morning,
skies will clear and temps will warm
Rest of Tonight and Tomorrow Morning
Sunday Night/Wee Hours Monday
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model below gives us some art. You can see that it’s pretty hot, and most runs are just like this.
Rest of Monday
Rounds of non-severe showers and possibly storms continue most of the day. A couple HRRR runs throw some stronger storms into both counties around 4pm. Not totally sold on that right now.
Finally rain exits tomorrow around dark. Temperatures will reach 70º.
Interns will cover the rest of the forecast period tomorrow. You’ll meet the rest of this intern class this week.