Rejoice! Rain is not in the forecast from now until Wednesday. This means that your weekend lake/BBQ/golf plans are finally a “go”, compared to the past couple of weeks.
What will be keeping us dry for the next few days? High pressure (otherwise known as the big, blue “H”)!
Latest HRRR Model
Showers and storms are again expected to “pulse up” this afternoon and evening across Middle Tennessee. Some could be on the stronger side with a few severe storms capable of damaging straight-line winds.
UPDATE as of 5:00PM CDT: The eastern half of both Davidson/Williamson remain under a “Marginal Risk” (1 out of 5) for damaging winds and some hail.
We’ve seen several showers and thunderstorms impact Davidson/Williamson counties today, some with ~40 mph wind gusts. More could develop through the evening, so we will be monitoring radar for developments.
Update: We’ve seen a few showers and storms roll through the bi-county area today. These should dissipate in conjunction with sunset, but heavy downpours remain possible through the evening.
Friday will provide increased rain chances, but particularly Friday night into Saturday. We will need to carefully monitor the potential for strong/severe storms on Saturday. While shear values are not very impressive, instability is high enough that when combined, could produce a few misbehavers. The biggest concerns would be hail and damaging winds on Saturday. All of that being said, we are not yet under any formal severe risk.
GFS Model Wednesday Through Friday Evening
What’s the pattern change, you ask? Hotter temps and higher humidity is what’s in store heading into late week. Sunshine will be out in full force Wednesday, but dew points will remain in the mid-upper 50s. In other words, the air won’t be too “heavy” or overbearing quite yet.
Friday’s forecast came from a pretty unified prediction by the weather models. The models thought Tropical Storm/Depression Cindy was going to move north along the Louisiana/Texas border, then turn northeast, then east, and move into Middle Tennessee right as a cold front was going to sweep through. This combo was gonna make it rain and maybe even produce damaging winds and few isolated tornadoes.Hence the Flash Flood Watch and probabilities of tornado (5%) and damaging winds (15%).
As she moves closer, her effects are felt stronger. Better organized winds and heavier rains are indicated for Friday.
Areas along and east of I-65 are under a “Slight Risk” for severe storms (2 out of 5) on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are the main concerns.
A word of advice from NWS Nashville this morning:
Just a side item, before we get into the meat of things–you might want to strongly consider mowing your yard over the next couple of days since, after that, things will start to trend wetter and wetter with each passing day, until we finally start to dry back out early next week.
The Storm Prediction Center gives all of us a “2 out of 5”, or Slight Risk, for severe weather on Sunday.
What: Showers and storms, some strong/severe. Main concerns are damaging winds, but hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Heading out the Sounds game tonight? Other than wiping off your seat, we will remain dry!
GFS Model Through Tuesday AM
A continued string of hot and humid days is expected into the weekend, so don’t forget to throw in those pesky afternoon storm chances each day! Sunday looks to be oppressive humidity/heat-wise, and is also when our much greater chance for more widespread rain and thunderstorms will return. A cold front will clear through the area on Monday bringing drier and a *little* cooler air (89ºF for next Tuesday afternoon instead of the recent low to mid 90s).
You must be logged in to post a comment.