Very warm few days ahead for October. Well above average highs in the mid 80s (on the order of ten or so degrees warmer than usual). Muggy dewps stick around for the week.
Hold on to your hats… expecting wind speeds between 10 and 20 mph throughout the day (gusts up to 30 mph possible!). A few clouds in the sky, but otherwise a sunny, warm day. Nothing to ruin any outdoor plans.
Temps and humidity are sticking to the trend today – temps in the high 70s and dewpoints in the high 60s (so sticky, but not unbearable).
The NWS said that some afternoon pop ups are possible, but HRRR shows most of the fun weather happening to our east. In their words, “Don’t think it’ll be widespread, but we’ll probably see some pavement wetters prior to sunset this evening.”
After a few rainy days, we enjoyed a mainly rain-free day except for some mist this morning. The rainfall is stacking up.
Guess what… we’re warming back up. Expect no less when it’s Fall in TN. One of these days we won’t have to rely on rain to bring us more Fall-like temps.
HRRR has showers and storms already moving into our area with storms continuing into the afternoon/evening.
SPC has included us in their outlook for severe weather today with the following probabilities for seeing severe weather.
Showers and storms look pretty widespread today. They look to hang around through the overnight hours. HRRR not showing a lot of breaks from the rain today.
No gaps in rain = rainout potential. Outdoor plans don’t seem like they will fair well. Nothing severe is expected with these storms, but don’t rule out lightning and the occasional strong gust of wind.
Rain from this morning will continue off and on today through the afternoon. Off/On rain and storms should end around 7 PM. See HRRR below:
There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, so some of these showers and storms may lead to heavy downpours. WPC thinks there is a low chance (5 – 10%) for flash flooding to occur in Davidson & Williamson counties.
Temperature highs will be in the low 80’s and lows will be in the high 60’s. Chances for scattered showers are possible today (HRRR shown below).
The model is showing that some showers pop up around 5 and are off and on through the evening. Rain today and tonight should not be heavy, but we can’t rule out a rumble of thunder.
Rain is expected in the early morning on Sunday. Rain continues off and on through lunchtime or maybe mid-afternoon (3-4 pm). The evening will be mostly overcast with still a chance for light occasional showers later into the night as things move out.
Some of the Sunday rain could be on the stronger side. The only concerns would be strong wind gusts and heavy downpours.
A closed low will circle around our area… see the morning AFD for an explanation.
A shortwave will dive south out of Minnesota/Wisconsin toward Arkansas Sunday night and quickly become a closed low by Monday evening. The closed low will spend the rest of the work week meandering around the Southeast and eventually the Ohio River Valley. This will put us in a cloudy, cooler, and wetter pattern than what we have seen over the past week. The highest PoPs areawide after Sunday will be Tuesday afternoon as the upper low lifts back north and west
