Today – Scattered Thunderstorms – High 88
Today we were set up for widespread afternoon pop up thunderstorms, and that’s what happened.
Afternoon showers should diminish after sunset, only to be followed by another complex of storms to move in from the west. In-storm updates can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
First, another appropriate use of summer:
Tonight
We should be rain-free for most of the day. Rain and a few thunderstorms are forming along the Ohio River. HRRR at 8 p.m. tonight:
Those Ohio River storms will come south through Kentucky later tonight, arriving here around 11 p.m.:
Saturday morning looks OK rain-wise, but Saturday night and Sunday look wet. Below, we review the entire weekend, model-by-model.
(Note: these are weather models, subject to error and revision. As we always say, use them for guidance, not Gospel. Also, read more than one).
First, some dudes doing summer right:
Rest of Today – Isolated Thunderstorms – High 92
This afternoon’s thunderstorm helped cool us off. We only made it to 92, instead of the forecast 95, but the heat index still hit 100 again today.
Rest of Today – Isolated Showers Possible – High 95
Can you say HOT? That is all it’s been today. The heat index reached 101 this afternoon. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your point of view), it does not look likely any shower or thunderstorms will be cooling us off this afternoon. Most of the thunderstorm activity is far off to our east.
Rest of Tuesday – Isolated Showers Possible – High 92
Widely scattered thunderstorms are popping up, mostly to our south and east. A few may fly by today. Lightning is the main concern, although we can’t rule out an unusually strong cell or two.
Rest of Today – Isolated Showers Possible – High 90
There is a very small chance of an isolated shower this afternoon through sundown. Don’t expect anything. THe HRRR model scatters showers just about everywhere except here. This is Monday 4 PM:
Tonight
A few showers, and maybe a few weak thunderstorms, should stream in from the SW, moving NW. Storms usually come from the opposite direction, so we call these unusually-moving storms “Crazy Ivans.” These Crazy Ivans will be off and on.
Today – Strong/Severe Pop-Up Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible – High 85
SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has posted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to our northeast (in KY and parts of IN) until 9 PM. We’re excluded from the Watch, but the system creating the severe weather over there is the same one threatening us.
Storms are expected to develop this afternoon from I-65 east toward Knoxville. They’ll move NNW. This is illustrated by the HRRR, which is predicting what the radar may look like at 4 p.m. today. I put a box around Davidson and Williamson Counties.