Storm Chances Tonight & Sunday

Today – Strong/Severe Pop-Up Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible – High 85

SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has posted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to our northeast (in KY and parts of IN) until 9 PM. We’re excluded from the Watch, but the system creating the severe weather over there is the same one threatening us.

HRRR model has a few blips of rain passing by us. Here it is from Saturday 4 PM – 11 PM:

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Hi-Res NAM model gives us a much different picture, with storms developing west of the Watch area, impacting us directly. Here it is from Saturday 4 PM – Midnight:

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I’d bet on the HRRR, which thinks rain is less likely.

Keep updated with tweets @NashSevereWx for any development this afternoon/evening. Hail, wind, and an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out in any storms that develop today.

Sunday –  Chance of Strong/Severe Afternoon Thunderstorms – High 87

7a 70 . 10a 80 . 1p 85 . 4p 87 . 7p 84 . 10p 77

A weak “short wave” (a disturbance) now moving across east Middle Tennessee today will still be around Sunday, giving us our best chance of rain in the afternoon. Our NWS has posted a 50% chance for thunderstorms. Some of those storms could become severe.

SPC has us under a 5% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a point. Hail, wind, lightning and a possible tornado in the strongest of storms can’t be ruled out.

Hi-Res NAM model drives a few showers by Sunday. Here it is Sunday 11 AM – 8 PM:

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Other models predict equally unimpressive rain totals. We may see a shower or two, but we don’t think we will see a washout of any outdoor activities (baseball games, Hannah Montana movie re-enactments, peaceful protests, etc.).

Monday – Sunny, Pop-Up Afternoon Showers – High 91

7a 72 . 10a 83 . 1p 89 . 4p 91 . 7p 88 . 10p 81

Minimal rain chances. This looks like an average July day: hot, humid, and a chance of a random thunderstorm.