Morning & Afternoon – High 82

At 7:00 a.m., Columbus, MS, radar showed storms entering SW Middle Tennessee:

By noon, the glamorous High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (or HRRR, my favorite model) spreads in a lot of north-moving rain & thunderstorms from N Mississippi and Alabama: read more

Tonight – 72 at 10 p.m.

No chance of rain.

Sunday – High 84

Our National Weather Service wrote the following (in blue) to emergency management personnel and other CMA Music Festival organizers: read more

Today – Rain Ending

Drunken scattered showers continue pushing into both counties, moving east (watch out for lightning!). NWS thinks we will eventually clear out and have a very nice evening.

Saturday – High 82 read more

Tonight

Tonight there is a 40% chance for scattered showers that could develop in the overnight. Should not be too much of a problem if you’re heading to the CMA Music Festival. No washout, just a little nuisance rain if anything does develop. read more

Tonight

The airport reported only 0.07″ of rain today. Areas west of us picked up doppler estimated 0.30″ of rain. No more storms are expected today

More thunderstorms are expected after midnight. read more

Today

Has been awesome, partly cloudy skies, warm, low humidity, and just a slight breeze.  Tonight will be just as nice with temps in the low 70s under partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – High 87 – Rain Chances Return read more

Today – High 78

What a difference a day can make! Mostly clear skies sunny, warm with low humidity. Enjoy it while it lasts because it’s June, and weather like this comes once in a blue moon. read more

Today – High 80

This morning a noisy complex of thunderstorm juuuust missed us. It passed to our southeast:

The HRRR deposits more rain on us around 10 a.m. (remember, use models for guidance, not gospel):

Full disclosure: the models haven’t been exactly helpful/accurate this morning. Other models deliver rain later in the afternoon. read more

Note — below is the morning update. More current information will be posted throughout the day on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

This Morning

A non-severe thunderstorm cluster hugged the TN/KY border. Storms in the cluster are moving NE, and the system itself is struggling to make it south.

Our NWS believes “that main area of showers and thunderstorms to our north will generally remain across this area through noon…but can not rule out some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the metro Nashville area also during this time period. Will also continue to expect south to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts to around 25 mph possible. So bike riders need to take this into account also.”

This will NOT be the main weather event today.

Afternoon / Early Evening

The main event comes late this afternoon/early evening, courtesy of a cold front approaching the Mississippi River, ready to push east towards us. Our NWS says:

A DEVELOPING AREA OF STRONG 
TO SEVERE TSTMS ... WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ETA is a little difficult because storms may form out ahead of a main line. I think it may rain/storm at any time after noon, but more likely things should begin around 5 p.m. to 7 p.m.  We will update the ETA on Twitter throughout the day.

This morning, the RAP has a well-after-dark ETA of 9 p.m.:

How bad will it be? Again, from our NWS:

SOME WEAKENING OF THE STORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL EXIST AND THEREBY PROVIDE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL. read more

Tonight:  a series thunderstorm clusters (more MCS fun!) move through MO, KY and IL. One may make it here, but probably not.

Saturday – High 86

It’ll definitely rain if another dying MCS shows up in the morning (that’s unlikely, brides). Expect another typical summertime slight chance of pop-up showers during the morning and afternoon hours. read more