Morning & Afternoon – High 82
At 7:00 a.m., Columbus, MS, radar showed storms entering SW Middle Tennessee:
By noon, the glamorous High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (or HRRR, my favorite model) spreads in a lot of north-moving rain & thunderstorms from N Mississippi and Alabama:
Our NWS says:
The storms will bubble up across the area through the day…A few storms may be strong…but the main concern today will be some locally heavy downpours.
There will be rain free times through the day…but people with outdoor plans should be prepared with rain gear because the showers and storms will tend to build up quickly.
Translation: you may not see any storms coming. Look for clouds that are building up into the sky that look like this:
If you’re under one of these, you’ll be getting wet.
By 5 p.m., the HRRR clears out much of the rain (Keep in mind these models should be used for “guidance, not gospel,” so don’t make specific plans based on them. Storms can appear at any time given the volatile afternoon/evening atmosphere.):
Around 7 p.m., a cold front will start pushing a broken “line” of storms our way from West Tennessee. Vanderbilt baseball may be able to get in their NCAA Super-Regional game against Louisville around this time, but these storms are of some concern for the end of the big #CMAFest finale. If you’re going to either, you wil need rain gear. Wear comfortable, water tolerant shoes. Ladies: do not enslave yourselves to fashion.
It still may rain or storm tonight, but right now we think the approaching storm line will decrease in intensity and arrive after everything is done at LP Field. It’s going to be a close call, but the WRF, Euro, RAP (below), GFS, Canadian, and NAM models all apparently like country music and sound decisions, and hold off or dissolve the storm line until after everyone has a good time and gets home safe.
The RAP, as promised above, at midnight tonight:
The Storm Prediction Center thinks there is a 5% chance you will see a damaging wind event within 25 miles of you sometime today:
SPC has excluded us from any risk of hail or tornadoes.
Bottom line: go to #CMAFest. Go see Vanderbilt beat Louisville. Bring some patience & rain gear, especially after noon, and don’t tempt the lightning. We will be nowcasting any and all thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Monday – High 84
More rain and thunderstorms are expected.
Categories: Forecast Blogs