Saturday Severe Threat, TORCON Rant

Tonight:  a series thunderstorm clusters (more MCS fun!) move through MO, KY and IL. One may make it here, but probably not.

Saturday – High 86

It’ll definitely rain if another dying MCS shows up in the morning (that’s unlikely, brides). Expect another typical summertime slight chance of pop-up showers during the morning and afternoon hours.

By late afternoon, a cold front will finally reach the Mississippi River, likely setting off rain and thunderstorms beginning around dusk Saturday night. These dynamics have prompted the Storm Prediction Center to include us in a Slight Risk of severe weather for tomorrow:

Our probability of severe weather is around 15% to 30%. SPC will update this several times between now and tomorrow afternoon.

Our NWS is not impressed by the severe weather setup (the threat exists, but the storm dynamics aren’t too favorable) for Saturday night and into the early Sunday morning hours. Neither are we. But, this may change, and we will keep you posted.

A note about TORCON

1.  It is not a product of the National Weather Service.

2.  Good science is “peer reviewed.” This means other experts in the field review your work and comment on it, point out problems, etc. Peer review exposes things to critique, which is important to a healthy scientific community. TORCON is not peer reviewed.  No one knows how Dr. Forbes comes up with the number.

3.  Anything that raises severe weather awareness is OK by me.  I like Dr. Forbes.

4.  We do not relay, endorse, or comment (except right now!) on TORCON.

5.  In our view, the best severe weather forecasters in the world are in Norman, OK, working for the Storm Prediction Center. They’re part of the NWS system. There is no mystery about their products.

Sunday – High 82

The cold front arrives. We expect a lot of rain (around 1″) to fall during the early morning hours, and maybe a few strong/severe storms.

Find additional updates on Twitter @NashSevereWx