Rain Tomorrow, Gorgeous CMA Fest Weekend Ahead


The airport reported only 0.07″ of rain today. Areas west of us picked up doppler estimated 0.30″ of rain. No more storms are expected today

More thunderstorms are expected after midnight.

Hi-Res NAM model Midnight  – Thursday 6 AM:

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The NAM has the worst of these storms breaking up before they reach us tonight. NWS is giving 70% chance for thunderstorms after midnight. It’s going to rain.

We do not expect severe weather, although the Storm Prediction Center is hanging on to a 5% chance of a damaging wind event happening within 25 miles of you through 7 AM Thursday morning.

Thursday – High 83

The morning commute looks wet. Our NWS says thunderstorms are “likely” tomorrow.

Hi-Res NAM model Thursday 7 AM – Thursday  2 PM:

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The NAM suggests a few more showers in the morning hours. By lunch tomorrow, the NAM says the rain will depart. Remember: use models for guidance, not gospel. Stray afternoon showers can’t be ruled out. The NWS puts our chance for thunderstorms at night at 40%.

Friday – High 82

This should be one of the better days this week: only a 40% chance for showers, mainly for a lingering afternoon pop up event.  After that, this system should be over and out.

GFS model Friday 1 PM:

Friday evening will be gorgeous, with lower humidity, and winds shifting to the north.

Here are the forecast rainfall totals from WPC (Weather Prediction Center) between now and Saturday 1 AM:

1.6″ to  2″ is the forecast total for our area, with higher isolated amounts expected. That amount may be overdoing it a bit. Our NWS predicts 1.34″ through Friday at 7 AM. No river flooding is expected.

The Weekend

Saturday – Mostly sunny, 62/82.

Sunday – Mostly sunny, with a 20% chance of pop-up storms (not severe) returning  early Monday morning, long after the concerts are over. 66/86.