Our probabilities for severe weather have been bumped up just a tad.
The Storm Prediction Center now has us in a 15% chance of damaging straight-line winds and hail within 25 miles.
Chance for a tornado within 25 miles remains at 2%.
15% Probs for Damaging Winds and Hail, Tornado Threat Nonzero This Afternoon + Evening
Low Chance of a Strong to Severe Storm Thru Thursday Morning
Rain/storms are expected to move into the area throughout the remainder of the day, with a low chance of being strong to severe.
The Storm Prediction Center has us outlooked with a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds and/or hail within 25 miles. We are also outlooked with a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles. All relatively low chances, but not zero.
Low-End Severe Weather Threat Overnight Wednesday Into Thursday Morning
We have been outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center with:
- a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles
- a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles
for Wednesday – Thursday morning.
Although this is relatively a very low threat for severe weather, it isn’t zero – so let’s discuss.
False Spring in Full Swing
Low to mid 70s were common today, and it won’t be the last time we see these temperatures this week.
High temps 20°+ above average will continue to be common throughout the week. Very unusual temps for the beginning of February.
Hard to Believe the Groundhog With This Forecast
Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning, which means 6 more weeks of winter – or so the rodent thinks.
But looking at the 7 day temp forecast…he seems like a liar.
High temps at least 60° every day, with several days in the low 70s. Monday, Wednesday and Thursday all have the potential to tie/break the daily record highs. No freezing temps in sight.
Near Record Warmth Next Week
After today, it’s all warm.
High temperatures will be 20+ degrees above average, getting close to our daily record highs on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.
Our start to February will feel more like April.
20 to 25 Degrees Above Average Next Week
Showers/storms have moved off to our east – leaving us with a dry rest of the weekend.
Relative to the rest of the forecast, Saturday will be cool. However, 53° is still ~5° above average.
Starting Monday thru at least Thursday, we’ll be 20 to 25 degrees above(!) average. This will lead to us getting very close to daily record high temps. February making quite the entrance.
Scattered Rain Thru Friday Morning, Then False Spring Starts Sunday
There’s been about half an inch of rain already measured at BNA so far, with more on the way.
HRRR model (above) thinks rain continues on/off throughout the night, tapering off near the AM commute. Not a bad idea to have rain jackets handy in the morning. Can’t totally rule out a rumble of thunder overnight, but it’s unlikely.
1 – 1.5 Inches of Rain Expected Thursday thru Friday AM
Rain is expected to move into the area Thursday morning, some break during parts of the afternoon and evening, then more soaking rain overnight Thursday into early Friday AM. Not expecting any thunderstorms, just rain. Rainfall totals low enough to keep our flooding threat very low, although some low-lying areas could see some ponding.
Rain Likely Thursday – Friday Morning, Clearing Out for the Weekend
Most of us reached the upper 50s today, and we’ll continue the warmer trend throughout the week. Highs sticking close to average, if not a little above average.
We get a break from the freezing temps for the foreseeable future – but we certainly aren’t done with the freezing temps. Our average last freeze isn’t until March 8.
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