Rain/storms are expected to move into the area throughout the remainder of the day, with a low chance of being strong to severe.
The Storm Prediction Center has us outlooked with a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds and/or hail within 25 miles. We are also outlooked with a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles. All relatively low chances, but not zero.
Timing:
The main timeframe for strong to severe weather potential will be from 4-10p. However, can’t rule out a strong to severe storm overnight tonight thru Thursday morning.
I’ll let the HRRR model roll thru Thursday AM.
Best chances for storms will be this afternoon/evening, and then again Thursday morning.
It appears that ingredients for severe weather best align overnight, when not much, if any, precip is expected – so that is good news.
What To Do:
Stay connected for any updates! This is a low chance for any severe weather, but the chance isn’t zero. Main focus is on storms potentially containing gusts up to 60mph and small hail, but a tornado cannot totally be ruled out. With the [low] possibility for severe wx continuing while most of us sleep, have a way to wake up in the off chance that a warning is issued for you. Ex: Weather Radio, wake-me-up app (such as StormWatch+), the Wireless Emergency Alerts on your phone.
Showers and storms will continue to be possible during the second half of Thursday, lasting into at least Friday morning. These are expected to behave and stay below severe limits.
HRRR model ⬇️
We may be able to get away with a dry first half of Saturday before additional rain chances return for the afternoon/evening. Likely just some rain, no thunderstorms expected.
For now, Sunday looks dry – but the rest of next week looks wet.
The CPC continues to advertise a 40-60% chance of heavy precipitation mid to late next week. Although “heavy” isn’t defined…It’s Gon’ Rain.
Temps return back to average for this time of the year starting Sunday – ending our False Spring.
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